Monday, November 5, 2012

Public Policy Polling: Florida and North Carolina Too Close To Call

PPP does some of the best polling work out there. Here's their report, one day before the election:
PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.

PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.

Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41). Full results here
On Saturday, they put out this report on Ohio and Virginia:

Obama leads in Ohio and Virginia 
PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia. 
In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state. 
Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.
It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.


  1. What about the Redskin Rule? Decisive? Peripheral? Coincidence?

  2. I'm in the southern portion of NoVa. I called Obama to win the presidency a week before he won the Iowa caucus in Feb. of '08. At the same time I called him to be a one term President. It was easy to see with his philosophical approach towards the economy. I'm more confident about that prediction now than I was almost 5 years ago. He's going to lose VA probably by the amount he won it.

  3. PPP is a wing of the Democrat party and has a terrible track record. Obama can't even fill up high school gyms. He is toast. I was in Durham, NC about a month ago and saw very few Obama signs; about the same number as Romney signs. That is a BAD sign for Obama.

  4. LOL just looked at the internals:

    FL survey has a skew of D+6
    NC survey has a skew of D+13!

    At D+13 the best Obama can do is tie at 49 percent? He can't even break 50 percent? The man is a loser.

  5. Both of those PPP polls are skewed because they do not mention Gary Johnson or Virgil Goode, and participants have to volunteer the name of a third party candidate if that is how they will vote.

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  7. I am a Ron Paul supporter and a North Carolina voter that will not be voting tomorrow. If Romney loses this state by 1 vote I'll sit at home and smile.

    1. I am also a Ron Paul voter from the primary here in NC and will not be voting tomorrow. It didn't get a lot of publicity, but he did take second place here in a pretty big surprise winning 11% of the vote and 108,000 votes in a very evangelical state defeating Santorum and Newt.

      From a quick search on wikipedia, Ron Paul also received 117,000 votes in Florida in a state he didn't even campaign in or attempt to win whatsoever. For the other swing states now down to the wire, Paul had around 107,000 votes in Virginia, 87,000 in WI, 113,000 in Ohio, around 106,000 in Penn, 115,000 in Michigan, 56,000 in New Hampshire, 26,000 and with plenty of fraud in Iowa, etc. Nevada and CO were not primaries, but Paul did extremely well in Nevada despite GOP fraud.

      Anyway, the point of all this is how much would it be worth to the GOP to have most of those votes in the above states? How many of those states will be lost by a margin smaller than that tomorrow night? It very well could be the difference between Obama winning or not, and had the GOP treated Ron Paul and his supporters differently and even at least pretended to adopt most of the ideas that Paul popularized, this could be a Romney landslide instead of a close fight we are discussing right now.

      Ohio, Florida, Virginia, NH, Iowa, North Carolina, and maybe even WI and Penn would all be almost certain to go to Romney if he had most of the Paul votes, and he would be president for sure if he won these. Who knows how many he will lose since he will not get 90% of them. The GOP only have themselves to blame.

  8. Doubt this. The Democratic oversampling of these polls is going to bite a lot of people in the butt after tomorrow. I hope many go out of business due to their sycophantic relationship with the democrats.

  9. I too have read that PPP uses 'creative sampling,' and may have bias, so not sure how EPJ comes up with "PPP does some of the best polling work out there" stm.(based on what?)

    Polls in and of themselves are used to create momentum or despair in one direction or another, and this election takes the cake in that regard.

    Romney may be flawed, but I cannot stomach Obamacare(new tax forms, individual mandates), Obama Supreme Court Justice and Fed Gov. appts.(most activist Fed in history), continued hyperdrive welfare distribution(food stamps, SSI), much more.

    I predict Romney will either win big(ala Tea Party 2010 type surprise), or could come down to Ohio(I read there could be a slim 20,000 vote margin for the purported victor), a situation that could go on for some weeks factoring in recounts, lawyer tussles, etc.

    What one really has to question is the viability of Democracy in the present form the system has evolved; it seems pretty creaky to me.