Monday, November 12, 2012

When is an Econometrician's Model Broken?

For the designer of the model, never.

WSJ's Justin Lahart reports:
Yale University economist Ray Fair’s presidential election model suggested that Mitt Romney would capture more votes than President Barack Obama. The vote didn’t pan out that way, but Mr. Fair says that’s no sign his model is broken.


  1. Some of the "particles" that Fair was experimenting with, changed their minds unpredictably. Oh yeah, they're human beings.

  2. Sounds like those always wrong, never in doubt, man-made global warming models....


  3. How does a mathematical model account for the lack of a plan, vague promises, and a foreign policy apparently beholden to Isreal?

  4. Nice to see that with government funding modern universities have been able to revive the level intellectual rigor previously only achieved with Church funding of universities in the middle ages.

    Indeed, with consistent application of public funding, we have been able to revive the previously reviled Theory of Spontaneous Generation nearly unmodified. This time applied to the science of Economics.

    Through this miracle of government academics worldwide have determined, not that mice will spring into existence from the aether, as in classical Spontaneous Generation, but that in the presence of printed banknotes real goods and services will spring into existence.

    And again through this miracle of government trans-rectal prestidigitation, like the Geocentric Universe of old, we have determined that all the econometric models are 100% correct - because after each deviation from the previous version of the theory we have implemented the necessary corrections. And as long as no contraindicating data can be published it will be totally clear that we have reached a permanent high plane of scientific understanding of human behavior.