Ok, finally a somewhat specific (well not really, but I take what I can get) forecast, "the dollar is going to go down dramatically" (at 4:45 in the video). On a broad trade weighted basis (Mr. Schiff did not specify an individual exchange rate) the dollar is at EXACTLY the same level as in early 2008 or in 1997 for that matter. A "dramatic fall" to me implies a dollar depreciation of more than 20%. Let's see what happens. Easy enough to check, no weaseling out of this by claiming wrong measurement (as Mr. Schiff does with the CPI).
Comparing the dollar to gold is not the point Mr. Schiff makes. He is advising the viewers to get out of dollar assets and predicts a fall of the dollar compared to other currencies, watch the video! In your reading he predicts a rise of the gold price to above $2,000 over the next year, I guess. Fine. Also not likely in my opinion, we'll see.
People are gonna need a lot more than a cocktail when the chickens come home to roost....that being said I suppose the former Treasury advisor chick would have been the one calling Volcker crazy for raising interest rates under the Carter administration.
To me the major misunderstanding in current monetary policy(not that there should be any such policy to begin with) is why the economy took off after the Carter administration.
People like this women attribute it to the deficit spending under Reagan with no regard to the higher interest rates put in place by Volker that helped clear the markets quickly so that growth could resume.(even if the malinvestment started right away under Reagan deficit spending)
Soon? ... Soon? Ha. Mr. Schiff just keeps admirably plugging away trying to get People to think. Half-way through it seemed like he should have just leaned back in his chair and let them twist themselves in knots over what he was saying.
Some times it's funny watching these videos. When the chick said Mr. Schiff was insane, it seemed like she was saying she was the one who was insane, then going all a twitter and such with an attempt to be smug and condescending... cheap know-nothing actress?
Mr. Schiff explicitly advises buying assets in other countries in currencies the "Fed can't destroy". He is NOT talking about gold in this context, you might wish he was, but he isn't. In addition I also think gold to rise to $2,000 is highly unlikely. More likely in my opinion that gold will fall below $1,500 next year, we'll see.
Pretty sure I'll be seeing this clip again in a few years as part of yet another "No one listened" video.
ReplyDeleteOk, finally a somewhat specific (well not really, but I take what I can get) forecast, "the dollar is going to go down dramatically" (at 4:45 in the video). On a broad trade weighted basis (Mr. Schiff did not specify an individual exchange rate) the dollar is at EXACTLY the same level as in early 2008 or in 1997 for that matter. A "dramatic fall" to me implies a dollar depreciation of more than 20%. Let's see what happens. Easy enough to check, no weaseling out of this by claiming wrong measurement (as Mr. Schiff does with the CPI).
ReplyDeleteYou can't compare the dollar to other fiat currencies. When compared to gold (real money) the dollar has fallen dramatically.
DeleteWhy don't you measure the exchange value of dollar against gold? Had a look at the price action in the last decade?
Deleteanon 9:58...rejected at the hoop
DeleteThe CPI IS a faulty measuring stick, though, because it's based on a constantly changing standard:
DeleteThe Illusions of Hedonics
http://mises.org/daily/1873
Comparing the dollar to gold is not the point Mr. Schiff makes. He is advising the viewers to get out of dollar assets and predicts a fall of the dollar compared to other currencies, watch the video! In your reading he predicts a rise of the gold price to above $2,000 over the next year, I guess. Fine. Also not likely in my opinion, we'll see.
DeletePeople are gonna need a lot more than a cocktail when the chickens come home to roost....that being said I suppose the former Treasury advisor chick would have been the one calling Volcker crazy for raising interest rates under the Carter administration.
ReplyDeleteTo me the major misunderstanding in current monetary policy(not that there should be any such policy to begin with) is why the economy took off after the Carter administration.
People like this women attribute it to the deficit spending under Reagan with no regard to the higher interest rates put in place by Volker that helped clear the markets quickly so that growth could resume.(even if the malinvestment started right away under Reagan deficit spending)
Soon? ... Soon? Ha.
ReplyDeleteMr. Schiff just keeps admirably plugging away trying to get People to think. Half-way through it seemed like he should have just leaned back in his chair and let them twist themselves in knots over what he was saying.
Some times it's funny watching these videos. When the chick said Mr. Schiff was insane, it seemed like she was saying she was the one who was insane, then going all a twitter and such with an attempt to be smug and condescending... cheap know-nothing actress?
Anon " the dollar is at EXACTLY the same level as in early 2008 or in 1997 for that matter. "
ReplyDeleteRelative to what? Not to gold. The dollar is half of it's 2008 and one sixth it's 1997 value relative to gold.
Mr. Schiff explicitly advises buying assets in other countries in currencies the "Fed can't destroy". He is NOT talking about gold in this context, you might wish he was, but he isn't. In addition I also think gold to rise to $2,000 is highly unlikely. More likely in my opinion that gold will fall below $1,500 next year, we'll see.
DeleteI hate to be sexist, but this is so typical of any men vs. women discussion...
ReplyDeleteI love to be sexist. The women I know love it too, especially when I open the door for them.
DeleteI admire Peter Schiff's composure on these mindless programs. I watch these laughing hyenas and wish I could strangle them on live television.
ReplyDelete