Thursday, April 18, 2013

Gohd on Gold: 10% to 15% Up Move Coming

By John Carney

These days it seems like everyone is running from gold as fast as they can.

Bank of America just sent out a note—perhaps a little late—removing it's $2,000 per ounce price target.
"Gold capitulation: No current technical or fundamental support for gold prices," Bank of America's headline blared.

"Even the most fierce gold bulls must be feeling sheepish after bullion tumbled its most in 30 years, raising questions about gold's value as part of an investor portfolio," Reuters notes.

You can almost smell the fear and loathing of the shiny metal.

To some investors, however, the sound of the stampede is not a signal to run with the herd. It's a signal to start jogging the other way.

Matt Gohd of Wallach Beth Capital points out that capitulation is another way of saying that there may be no one left to sell gold.

Up until the last few days, Gohd has been very negative on gold.

"I thought it was over-owned over-hyped, and under-delivered. The constant bullish refrain about all the central banks 'printing money' and upcoming rampant inflation has been the same for the last $350 move down," Gohd told me.

Now the situation is different: The bullish refrain has gone quiet.

From Gohd's contrarian perspective, when everyone is so overwhelmingly on one side of a trade, all the downside gets priced in and a vacuum of supply is created. It's that vacuum that Gohd thinks can create a 10 percent to 15 percent short-term move up and is designing option strategies for Wallach Beth's institutional clients to benefit from that with less risk in the case he is wrong.

"Everybody hates gold now. Which means that gold has priced in every negative potential that could happen to it," Gohd said.

Read the rest here.

1 comment:

  1. The more they drive it down the more I'll buy...