Gross: The secular 30-yr bull market in bonds likely ended 4/29/2013. PIMCO can help you navigate a likely lower return 2 - 3% future.
— PIMCO (@PIMCO) May 10, 2013
Friday, May 10, 2013
Bill Gross: 30-Year Bull Market in Bonds is Over
Bill Gross,manager of Pimco's monster Pimco's Total Return Fund ($292 billion under management)tweeted today:
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Escalator up, elevator down
ReplyDeleteIf that is the end of the bond bull, it has been long anticipated... And if Bill called it correctly, more power to him.
ReplyDeleteWhat is not in question is that it WILL end, and is way way closer to the end than to the beginning.
Short the long bond.
Told ya, Krugman indicator. PK says no bubble in bonds, right before the bust? That would be too sweet. One of those rare moments in history where justice actually triumphs.
ReplyDeleteGross says the same thing every year and then a few months later he's like "never-mind!"
ReplyDeleteOf course the bind market IS a gigantic bubble and eventually IS going to burst. So Gross is going to be right some day, and maybe even today, but you count on him for timing. If you had listened to him last year and tried to short treasuries, you would have been hurt.
However, he did speak highly of Ron Paul during the campaign so kudos to him for that.
Lysander
Bill Gross, manager of Pimco's monster Pimco's Total Return Fund ($292 billion under management) tweeted correctly today.
ReplyDeleteOn Friday, May 10, 2013, competitive currency devaluation entered its second day this week on the death of credit, as is seen in Aggregate Credit, AGG, trading parabolically lower. Distrust in the ability of debtors to pay back creditors has finally come of age, as investors rally World Stocks, VT, to a blow off market top.
Individual currencies traded lower again today; these included the Swiss Franc, FXF, -1.0, the Indian Rupe, ICN, 1.0, the Japanese Yen, FXY, -0.9, the Brazilian REAl, BZF, -0.7, the Australian Dollar, FXA, -0.7, the Swedish Krona, FXS, -0.7, the British Pound Sterling, FXB, -0.6, the Euro, FXE, -0.4, and the Canadian Dollar, FXC, -0.3. Gold, GLD, is both a currency and a commodity, it traded 0.8% lower, which turned Commodities, DBC, 0.5%, lower.
Debt deflation, that is currency deflation, commenced the week ending May 10, 2013, most notably causing individual currencies the Austalian Dollar, FXA, to trade lower, and driving up the interest rate on Global National Treasury Debt, BWX, which includes US Government Debt, GOVT, in particular the Interest Rate on the benchmark US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, which rose to 1.90%, which in turn induced the debt laden Electric Utilities, XLU, to turn lower; investors had been hotly pursuing these invesments because of their high yield, but chasing of yield ended as bond vigilantes called interest rates higher acrosss the board, which turned Aggregate Credit, AGG, lower.
The world central banks’ monetary policies of Global ZIRP, have finally turned money good investments, bad. A case in point is Australia’s Westpac Banking, WBK; in contrast, currency carry trade endowed, Lloyds Bank, LYG, rose strongly in a Global ZIRP grand finale finish. Failing of Global ZIRP, stimulated investors to derisk out of Nation Investment in Australia, EWA; in contrast Malayasia, EWM, rose strongly on Global ZIRP cool aid. And souring Global ZIRP, in particular the debt dynamics of Australia Dividends, AUSE, turned this investment lower, while investors pursued Pharmaceuticals, PJP, to its zenith. Another example of investors derisking on excessive credit policies, is the trade lower in Japanese Treasury Bonds, as seen in their inverse, JGBS, trading higher, in contrast Japan, EWJ, and Japan Small Caps, JSC, rallied higher.
At the first of the year, on fears of global growth slowing and corporate profits falling, investors derisked out ot the Emerging Markets, EEM, in particular Peru, EPU, and its Copper Mining, COPX, Southern Peru Copper Corporation, SCCO, as is seen in their combined chart.
Yet, Kuroda Abenomics, spurred investment in SNE, KUB, NMR, IX, IIJI, SMFG, MTU, ATE, NTT, as is seen in their combined chart.
Peru and Japan are polar opposites in Liberalism’s wildcat finance, a Doug Noland term, with rewards going to short sellers of the former, and investors in the latter. Jesus Christ operating through Liberalism’s Schemes, such as leveraged buyouts, currency carry trade investment and moral hazard, has produced investment gains to those exercising wise discernment in investment choice.
As of the week ending May 10, 2010, He fully completed the dispensation, that is the economic and political plan of God, Ephesians 1:10, for Liberalism’s era of investment choice producing prosperity. And He is successfully introducing Authoritarianism’s age of diktat producing austerity, which will be characterized by wildcat governance, where sovereigns and seigniors, bite, rip and tear one another apart in the desperate attempt to be the top dog ruler and banker, who operate in Authoritarianism’s Schemes of new taxes, bank deposit bailins, capital controls, and labyrinthian austerity measures.
He says its over but, is he actually significantly short gov long bonds? Is this his book or is this typically speculation blather? If he thought this time was imminent why would he go public and announce it?
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