Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Latest Early Iowa Polling: Rand and Hillary Lead

PPP's newest look at the Republican race for 2016 in Iowa finds a new leader. Rand Paul is at 18% to 16% for Chris Christie, 15% for Paul Ryan, 14% for Jeb Bush, 11% for Marco Rubio, 10% for Ted Cruz, 6% for Rick Santorum, 2% for Bobby Jindal, and 1% for Susana Martinez. Paul also led  the last time we polled New Hampshire with 28% to 25% for Rubio and 14% for Christie.

Marco Rubio had led the way when PPP polled Iowa in February, but has dropped 5 points since then even though his favorability rating is basically unchanged (54/13 then, 54/14 now). Candidates rising since then are Christie (up 4 points and also from 36/33 to 45/27 on his favorability), Paul (up 3 points and from 55/19 favorability to 60/15), and Ryan (up 5 points and from 63/16 favorability to 68/12).

Paul is leading based on his appeal to the furthest right segment of the GOP. With 'very conservative' voters he's at 25% with no one else polling above 13%. Paul is also particularly strong with men (getting 21% to 17% for Christie) and younger voters (getting 32% to 26% for Ryan). Christie has a big advantage with moderates, Bush leads with seniors, and Ryan is up with women.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be totally dominant, getting 71% to 12% for Joe Biden and 5% for Elizabeth Warren with no one else polling above 2%. Clinton is doing even better than she was in February, when she registered at 68%. Her favorability rating is 87/7. Clinton polls at 72% with women and 69% with men, 72% with young voters and 67% with seniors, 77% with liberals and 63% with moderates. Clinton also led our last New Hampshire poll with 68% to 12% for Biden and 5% for Warren.

If Clinton were to stay out of the race, Joe Biden becomes the big favorite. He has an 80/8 favorability rating and polls at 51% to 16% for Elizabeth Warren, 9% for Andrew Cuomo, and 6% for Cory Booker.
And if Clinton and Biden were both out of the mix, Warren leads the way with 20% to 18% for Cuomo, 12% for Cory Booker, 7% for Kirsten Gillibrand, 4% for Martin O'Malley, 3% for Brian Schweitzer, and 2% for Mark Warner.
When it comes to the general election Clinton is a clear favorite against all comers. Chris Christie comes closest to her but still trails by 7 points at 43/36. After that it's Paul Ryan trailing by 9 at 49/40, Rand Paul down 11 at 48/37, Marco Rubio down 12 at 47/35, and Jeb Bush down 14 at 50/36.
Full results here


  1. I keep seeing Ted Cruz pop up as a potential candidate for president. Why would he even be listed on the poll? Don't they know he was born in Canada?


    1. It's the voting that is retarded, 7d. As long as we are willing to submit to the outcome of a vote, most of us will be disappointed. Even if your guy wins, all the Jeb-bots are forced to submit to your man, when they would to prefer to submit to Jeb.

  3. Rand vs Hillary: Neocon A vs Neocon B

    Rockefeller vs J.P. Morgan

    Like watching the same two teams in the Superbowl year after year.