Tuesday, July 16, 2013

The Panic Out of Bonds

Ed Yardeni posts this chart to put into perspective the cash flow out of bonds.

WARNING: This is only the start.

1 comment:

  1. Yes indeed it is just the start.

    Bond vigilantes have control of the bond market and will be calling the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note higher, causing disinvestment out of stocks, and deleveraging out of the EUR/JPY, as well as currency carry trades globally.

    Daniel Kruger & Liz Capo McCormick of Reuters present An interest rate yield forecast. “The term premium turned positive June 19 for the first time since October 2011, according to Columbia Management. A negative number showed that investors were willing to own bonds at such expensive levels as long as the Fed was buying”.

    “Economists and strategists see little change in yields for the remainder of 2013, ending the year at 2.62 percent, based on the median of 67 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That’s below the average yield of 5.37 percent over the past 25 years.

    “It’s going to be hard to sell-off unless something dramatically changes, which we don’t forecast over the next couple of months,” Ira Jersey, an interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York, one of 21 primary dealers that trade with the Fed, said in a July 10 telephone interview.

    Treasury 10-year note yields have probably established a new range between 2.40 percent and 2.75 percent, Jersey said.”

    I contend that bond vigilantes gained control of the credit market calling the Interest Rate on the Ten Year Note, ^TNX, rising to 2.01% on May 24, 2013, and that this was an “extermination event” which terminated Liberalism, ending both its policy of investment choice and its credit schemes, such as, free trade agreements, financial deregulation, leveraged buyouts, nation investment, currency carry trade investing, securitization of debt, dollarization, financialization of stocks and ETFs, such as corporate bonds which convert into stocks, all of which created capital for corporations to operate and revenue for governments to operate. Debt deflation is underway as currency traders are selling Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, short.

    Investors have taken refuge in US Regional Banks, KRE, and in the Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, driving up the value of the Russell 2000, IWM, as well as the Small Cap Pure Value Stocks, RZV, and the Small Cap Pure Growth Stocks, RZG. This is reflected in the John Rubino report Oops, we did it again: Banks and houses dominate the recovery. One of the many, many lessons we should have learned from the 2009 crash is that an economy driven by inherently unstable, and completely unproductive, things like rising home prices and bank trading profits can’t be trusted. And yet here we are again. Bloomberg reports that the Manhattan housing boom has spread to the boroughs.

    Interest rates are going to being rising much faster and much soon than establishment analysts perceive from their recent July 5, 2013 rally to 2.71%.

    Of note, on Tuesday July 16, 2013, a see saw destruction of fiat money likely commenced as Aggregate Credit, AGG, traded higher and the Regional Banks, KRE, and the Too Big To Fail Banks, RWW, led World Stocks, VT, lower, on the miss in retail sales versus expectations.

    On Tuesday Mike Mish Shedlock writes Big miss in retail sales vs. expectations. DXLG has been one of the hot retail stocks of late, it traded down 0.9%, as the Retail Stocks, XRT, traded 0.7% lower.