Wednesday, October 16, 2013

The "Great" Forecaster Robert Shiller Never Saw the Housing Rebound Coming

Th new Nobel prize winner and  "great" forecaster, Robert Shiller never saw the housing rebound. Here he is on FOX Business News in April 2012, when the housing market was just starting its climb.

Here's the annual percentage gain in housing prices, since the Shiller interview:

Here's Shiller's Case-Shiller which recently reported:
– Data through July 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones
Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1

 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices,
showed increases of 1.9% and 1.8% from June for the 10- and 20-City Composites. For at least four
months in a row, all 20 cities showed monthly gains. Phoenix posted 22 consecutive
months of  positive returns. Although home prices in all the cities increased, 15 cities and both Composites saw  these monthly rates decelerate in July versus June.

Over the last 12 months, prices rose 12.3% and 12.4% as measured by the 10- and 20-CityComposites. The year-over-year returns show a brighter outlook with 13 cities posting improvementin July versus June values. Las Vegas increased the most from +24.9% in June to an impressive +27.5% in July.

BTW: Just a few week after Shiller's negative comments on housing, in May 2012, I wrote in the EPJ Daily Alert:
 with rates this low and house prices this low, this is likely the best home buying market you will ever see. 
I continued to reinforce my bullish stance on housing through out the summer of 2012: in the EPJ Daily Alert

I emphasize, again, that the housing market appears to be strengthening without major Fed printing. If the Fed starts to aggressively print, we will see a much stronger rebound in housing prices.

If you have been contemplating buying a house, now is the time to do it AND lock in the current low mortgage rates long term as a significant bonus.

1 comment:

  1. Watching him and others like him, has to be what it was like listening to alchemists 400 or more years ago as the expound on the theories of their pseudoscience. It must really suck to have dedicated your life to something that just wasn't so. The scary part about this guy is that he is educating young adults and filling their heads full of the same pseudoscience he has dedicated his life to.