Friday, December 6, 2013

Libertarian Sheep: Made to Be Sheared by Bitcoin

By Gary North

This week, a perfectly named Bitcoin market called Sheep Marketplace went down, taking $100 million of the sheep’s Bitcoins with it. It announced this.

Sheep is down

We are sorry to say, but we were robbed on Saturday 11/21/2013 by vendor EBOOK101. This vendor found bug in system and stole 5400 BTC — your money, our provisions, all was stolen. We were trying to resolve this problem, but we were not successful. We are sorry for your problems and inconvenience, all of current BTC will be ditributed to users, who have filled correct BTC emergency adress [sic].
I would like to thank to all SheepMarketplace moderators by this, who were helping with this problem. I am very sorry for this situation. Thank you all.

This morning, I received an email from someone named Mike. He is a perfect example of the sheep to be sheared.

Mike does not like my articles exposing Bitcoins as a digital tulip mania. He decided to put me in my place.

The problem with people who have never read an economics book carefully is that they pick up the jargon, but they have no knowledge of the actual logic of economics.

I received an email from a stranger yesterday. It began, “Gary.” At that point, I knew it was from a some 20-something kid. Adults do not begin a letter to a stranger with his first name.

It began:

I’ll try to be brief.

He failed.

Since gov’t fiat usurped the place of real money, fiat now functions as money and we call it money. You call it money. You keep saying dollars are money. Do dollars fit the regression theorem? I think not, except by way of cannibalizing gold. But that’s been a done deal for a long time, so we call all this stuff money now.

I have written about this in 2004 in my article on the de-monetization of gold.

This kid does not understand the basics of arguing. When you write to someone who writes 7 articles a day, you should figure that he has written something on the topic you are raising. When you tell him that he doesn’t understand something on which he has written for 50 years, you should first do a Google search. But kids who begin letters with the author’s first name are not skilled in debate.

Bitcoin is a market response to gov’t fiat. It’s a decentralized fiat, a people’s fiat if you will. It rides the dollar just like the dollar rode gold. It uses dollar values for economic exchange just like the otherwise worthless fiat dollar used the whole price history of gold/silver economies.

First, there are hardly any economic exchanges made with Bitcoins. There is almost nothing offered for sale. Second, the only thing that most people are buying with their hard-earned dollars are Bitcoins. It’s a tulip-mania bubble. Third, because the price of Bitcoins is highly volatile, no one can make calculations about its value tomorrow. This is why Bitcoins are not money. Bitcoins are no more money than tulip bulbs in the Netherlands in 1636 were money.

Read more here.

30 comments:

  1. lol...righteous smackdown by North.

    Just wait for the flood of Bitcoiners coming in to decry how they are buying "everything" with Bitcoin.

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    1. Righteous smackdown by North. No doubt about that.

      Ha! I wonder, was that Jerry who wrote to him (or someone on his team?):

      Mike wrote: "Tell me, if the gov’t of Bananaland had issued Bitcoin, would you then call it money?"

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    2. Not "everything" but this past week I've bought food, groceries, clothes, airfare, Christmas Gifts, domain names, and more with my bitcoins. They work as money for me!

      It'll be fun watching these bitcoin haters beg for bitcoins in the coming years.

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    3. Don't tell me about laying off your bitcoins, are you willing to get paid in a fixed amount of them?

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    4. Bob, I would actually prefer to get paid in a set amount of bitcoins but I'm afraid it would bankrupt the payer since bitcoins are appreciating so much. I tried pricing my goods and services in bitcoin but I had to change the prices so often (due to the appreciation) that I'm simply letting people use the dollar exchange rate for convenience. At some point the rate of appreciation against other currencies will stabilize but only at much higher prices (in my opinion). With that said, I always offer my products and services at a discount when someone pays me with bitcoins.

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    5. Even better Wenzel, ask Honey Badger how much of a premium he is paying over the USD for his groceries, airfare, etc.

      Sure, it may not matter to him if he was an early adopter that he's paying a premium(and I'm not talking about the "transaction cost" either, I'm talking PREMIUM) because he's already made money, but the whole argument is that Bitcoin is a store of value and a stable medium of exchange.

      Whether Bitcoin is a store of value has yet to be determined but we all know it's not a stable medium of exchange and on that basis alone it's going to be hard to get people to continue to invest long term in them if they do become stable on the basis that everything they pay for using them is costing 10, 20, 30% or more than if they paid with USD's.

      That's the "dirty little secret" right now among these Bitcoin vendors, they are charging premiums or simply playing the "trade" by simply holding off on delivery if they are brokering, so they can profit on the climb of Bitcoins(for now).

      As soon as the trade reverses the casualty rate among Bitcoin vendors is going to skyrocket(and people are going to get burned), exacerbating the problem of Bitcoiners are going to have with their volatile currency. Tulip mania indeed.

      One only needs to look at the review of Bitcoin vendors to see the constant complaints about delivery to understand what is going on.

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    6. So your employer won't pay you in a fixed amount of bitcoins, what kind of currency is that?

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    7. I'm self employed and I always offer my products and services at a 10% discount if the buyer pays with bitcoins. Day to day fluctuations don't bother me since I believe the long term price will be much higher. This is a way I can buy bitcoins cheap (at my cost of goods).

      Now I would love to have an employer pay me a salary of say 4 bitcoins a month ($4k at today's exchange rate). The problem is that it will cost him more and more each month to procure those coins and pay me (assuming bitcoins continue to appreciate over the long term). My prediction is $10,000/bitcoin in 12 months. I'm willing to take that bet but I don't think any employer would since they would be paying me $40,000/month at that time.

      I also get a discount when paying with bitcoins. I get the discount in 2 ways:

      1. My coins have appreciated since I bought them (even just two weeks ago) so my purchasing power is greater.

      2. Most merchants sell at par but I can get 3% cash back when I buy gift cards from Gyft.com. Through them I can shop just about anywhere I want: Staples, Amazon, Target, etc., etc. So it is much cheaper and faster when I spend my bitcoins.

      3. Many merchants will also accept a discount if paying with cash (bitcoins) since bitcoins can be instantly converted to cash through services like BitPay (or the merchant can simply save them).

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    8. Why do you pretend to be dumb Wenzel? BTC hasn't even been around 5 years. How long did it take for people all over the world to start accepting gold?

      I'm not disagreeing with even, I'd just like it if you would catch yourself in these logical fallacies. What you just said doesn't prove a thing about anything other than you are willing to simplify and dumb down a discussion if it suits your purposes. Which I have known for awhile...couIPgh!

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    9. This entire discussion makes Bob's point. Bitcoin will not be money until people stop talking about accepting bitcoins at a discount or premium with reference to some other currency. Saying that paying in bitcoin could "bankrupt the payer since bitcoins are appreciating so much" illustrates this point. If bitcoins were money, and such money was appreciating so much, we would instead by saying the prices are falling so much (which is how currency appreciation is expressed). We would be saying that an employer could be bankrupted by agreeing to pay a fixed salary of say 4 bitcoins because prices are falling so much. But this makes no sense. If prices are falling so much, then the employer's costs (in bitcoins) would also be falling a lot, and presumably, the employer would also be cutting salaries (in bitcoin) to keep up with this massive price deflation.

      Right now, bitcoin is an investment, no different than stocking up on ammo, whiskey, gold, or other scarce commodity that is easily bought and sold and that could under the right circumstance become money. I have a friend who just got out of prison. In prison, instant coffee is money. It is non-perishable, fungible, and easily divisible. I am envious of the people who have already profited from bitcoin and wish them well. But their past success does not help me predict if it will ever become money, whether I could likewise profit by buying bitcoins now, as opposed to gold, ammo, or instant coffee, or what a bitcoin will buy if or when it becomes money.

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  2. Is it just me or is this rebuttal by Mr. Gary North (didn't want to only use his first name) lacking in real argumentation? I think the author (Mike Stallings) makes points against North's arguments. Yet, it seems North just simply dismisses them as ridiculous or asinine without addressing them.

    Am I missing something here? I'm not quite seeing the "smackdown" Anon (@12/6/2013 09:18).

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    1. North can be wordy and can overstate his case, but Mike Stalling does not make a coherent counter-argument. And Mr. Stalling is flatly wrong when he states (in his comment back to Mr. North) that government fiat money "cannot possibly satisfy the regression theorem." It already has! The entire world, including everyone here, accepts payment in US fiat paper even though we know it is just unbacked paper or digits. The reason why is explained solely by the regression theory. The regression theory explains that it's because regardless of how much we despise it, that paper money was exchanged for valuable products yesterday, the day before yesterday, and the day before that, and at fairly stable prices, that even when they change, they change slowly. That's the regression theory. It can all unwind pretty quickly if the masses wake up to the realization that the paper money will expand indefinitely and quickly, but that too is part of the regression theory. Bitcoin can also become money, regardless of its "intrinsic" value (whatever that means), if/when it meets the conditions of the regression theory. Mr. North predicts never, or at least not for a generation or so. He's not crazy to think that. In fact its quite a leap of faith to think otherwise.

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  3. Gary North hasn't noticed that the floodgates have opened and the number of businesses accepting bitcoin is growing at an exponential rate. Just look at the numbers: BitPay's merchant volume is up thousands of percent over last year; Coinbase.com has opened up something like 65,000 new accounts in the past several weeks; and Blockchain.info is opening up something like 15,000 new wallets a day.

    Of course there aren't many businesses using bitcoins compared to other means of payment but it obviously has to start somewhere. Of course the price isn't stable at the moment. What else would you expect from a new currency that is going through a period of hyper-monetization? The exchange rate will only stabilize after it has grown to it's equilibrium market price - which will likely be North of $100k per bitcoin (pun intended).

    I would venture a guess that North and his ilk have never even tried using bitcoins. The minute you transfer value across distance instantly, without any fees and no middlemen, a light bulb goes on.

    I predict many people will be eating crow in the next several years as Bitcoin proves itself. North now adds his name to this list which currently includes Schiff and Wenzell. Now, before you delete this comment Bob, why not leave it up and see where we end up in 5 years? Are you afraid you could be wrong?

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    1. Bitcoin's rise in usage and value is compatible with it being a bubble. It does not support your belief that it is not a bubble.

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    2. Yes, the "bubble that never ends". "Hyper-monetization" is a better term. Only time will tell but my money is n bitcoin.

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  4. "which will likely be North of $100k per bitcoin"

    Sweet Jesus, the hubris you have. It won't even take 5 years to see where this ends up.

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  5. According to Bitcoin.org, "Bitcoin should be seen like a high risk asset, and you should never store money that you cannot afford to lose with Bitcoin."

    That says all you need to know about Bitcoin.

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    1. Not as risky as the dollar. My dollar holdings have lost 10,000% against my bitcoin holdings over the past year.

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    2. BTW, my bullion holdings have crashed even harder against my bitcoin holdings these past several years.

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    3. When gold was going up, I happily made the same observations, that my dollar holdings and my stock holdings were crashing hard against my gold. Then gold prices fell and my gold holdings crashed hard against the dollar and my stocks. How is bitcoin any different? Because its better than gold, more stable than gold, will have a never-ending increase in demand unlike gold?

      Sadly, for once I agree with Jerry. Buy bitcoin and hope, but don't attribute magic powers to it. For all we know, gold will one day become a money again, or something else even better than bitcoin or gold will become a money. I admire the innovators and early adopters though. I say keep promoting it, but don't fall into unfounded illusions that bitcoin will never crash hard against the dollar, stocks, or food.

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  6. All of this cometary is judging an infant on what you think he will become as an adult. The trend of Bitcoin is a beginning and the naysayers should know better.

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    1. Well said. So far, Bitcoin has been famously successful for many and not so successful for some. When people point to the downfall of Silk Road and Ross Ulbricht they fail to mention the thousands of successful, voluntary, free-market transactions that this service enabled over several years. Bitcoin is just a tool - and a very effective tool in the hands of those who know how to use it. So far, it is working just fine.

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    2. Seashells and sticks are not money proper either, but they did serve as money for a time. Money is what two people decide it will be. The best digital free market currency may not be Bitcoin in 20 years from now but thanks to the idea, there will be a better stronger government free currency in the future.

      For all the anti-bitcoin people: you are "bitch-coiners"

      Sometimes you have fight your own team harder than those who claim to be against you.

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    3. Napster introduced the idea of freely exchangeable digital music. After it was threatened, and bullied it spawned even more music sharing. You can say that Napster ushered in the 'buy a single song for a dollar' revolution. In the end Napster was as Bitcoin is: a revolution in the making.

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    4. @Anonymous December 6, 2013 at 4:46 PM

      Very true. A perfect system is not going to drop in our laps. We have to fight for our freedom. Bitcoin can use more "fighters" and fewer "whiners". Fortune favors the bold.

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  7. Current Price of two Domino's medium 2 topping pizza in USD: $11.98

    Current Price using Bitcoins, translated to USD: $17.41

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  8. anyone that says they would rather be paid in bitcoins is lying. The exchange rate could drop to zero dollars tomorrow. you'd have to be stupid to make that statement. If I were your employer I would take you up on that. ooh, bitcoin is high right now. keywords= right now. good luck with that.

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    1. You say "anyone that says they would rather be paid in bitcoins is lying."

      To which I respond, "unless you understand them like I do."

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    2. I understand that if I wait for the price of shitcoins to drop to nothing and then I pay you, I win, you lose. #dropsthemic

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