Tuesday, March 25, 2014

GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control

FiveThirtyEight reports:
We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.

As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races...

Our assessment of the 36 races2 up for grabs this November is as follows:
Details on the FiveThirtyEight methodology here.


  1. And this will change things how? Big deal. We'll all be better off when the USG goes away.

  2. To be ruled by Red State fascists or Blue State fascists? Hmm, what a choice!