Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Deflation is the Greatest Hoax: Prices Are Soaring

"For headline inflation, pipeline food prices have been soaring, and while there has already been significant pass-through to the consumer level in recent months, there is likely more to come," Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman said in a recent note to clients, according toCNBC.

"For core inflation, goods prices appear to be firming up after a year of persistent slight deflation, consistent with some improvement in global growth after last year's strains in emerging market economies," he added. "Meanwhile, more domestically driven core services prices are being boosted by signs of a slight acceleration in rental costs, which is likely to continue as tight mortgage lending conditions drive increased demand for rental units into already tight rental markets."

CNBC goes on:

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, said other areas beyond food and energy—both of which are excluded in what economists define as "core inflation"—are getting costlier as well.

"Airline fares are on the rise," he said in his morning note Tuesday. "Movie tickets and other such recreational services are on the rise. Repair service fees are on the rise. Shelter costs in general are on the rise. Tuition costs are on the rise. Medical service prices are on the rise."
Taken together, Rosenberg said the current deflation scare among monetary policy makers—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi spoke of it Tuesday—amounts to "the greatest hoax" as central banks "do what they do best, which is to ... fight the last war."

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