Friday, June 20, 2014

Who Needs JP Morgan's Chief Strategist When You Have EPJ?

J.P. Morgan Funds Chief Global Strategist David Kelly appeared on  CNBC this morning.

He made three points about the markets and the economy.

He said:

1. He was cautiously optimistic about the stock market.

2. That the Fed is too dovish about inflation.

3. Bonds are headed lower, that is interest rates are higher.

Specifically, he said:

1. "We're still cautiously overweight U.S. equities."

2.  "I think the Fed's forecast for the economy are wrong. And their policy is too dovish based on those policies."

3. He thinks rates are "seriously mispriced"..."The bond market is unbelievably more dovish than the Federal Reserve itself"

But who really needs a high-priced JP Morgan economist to become aware of these trend? These are all trends I have noted at the EPJ Daily Alert:

1. With regard to cautious bullishness.  I wrote on June 4 in the ALERT:
"At this time, I remain cautiously bullish about the stock market and economy"
2. With regard to Fed dovishness, I wrote in the ALERT on May 22:
"The Fed, it is clear, will be very slow to react to accelerating price inflation. My expectations continue to be that the Fed will show no concern until price inflation hits 3% and will do too little too late at that time to battle the price inflation."
3. With regard to climbing interest rates, I wrote in the ALERT on June 13:
"Anyway you look at it [interest] rates will head higher..."
And just this morning, I wrote on the seriousness of these trends in the ALERT:
""​I repeat, we are on the edge of massive changes in the economy. These won't be small moves, they could very well be trends that settle in for years. Accelerating price inflation and higher interest rates will be at the core of the trend.

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