Friday, September 19, 2014

How Many Cases of Ebola Could Develop by the End of the Year?

Researchers at Columbia University developed a model to forecast how the current Ebola epidemic might continue through mid-October, based on the infection rates as of Sept. 7. The “no change” forecast assumes that current efforts at stopping the virus will continue at the same rate of effectiveness. The “improved” forecast assumes that interventions will become more effective, reports NPR.

If nothing changes in the next few weeks, we could see at least 60,000 cases by the end of 2014.

The projections come from Jeffrey Shaman, an associate professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health. According to NPR, he's making models of the Ebola epidemic for the U.S. government. When he first saw the results of his models, the numbers were so high that he was afraid to make them public.

"I didn't want to scare people," Shaman says. "But we're really in uncharted territory here. We've never had a sustained outbreak of Ebola like this, certainly nothing of this magnitude."



  1. A lot depends on how much they plan to help it along.

  2. I was mildly concerned 6 weeks ago. I bacame more concerned as more news was released. I am actively planning for a family and community safe zone. No panic, no excessive spending, just prudent concern and a wary eye on the "what if" scenarios.