Tuesday, November 18, 2014

How Long Will It Take You to Find a New Job If You Lose Your Current One?

In a study by a group of New York Fed economists they report, the short-term unemployed have the highest transition rate into employment; around 26 percent of short-term unemployed workers in August 2014 report finding a job in September 2014. The long-term unemployed have lower job-finding rates, with only 12 percent finding a job from August 2014 to September 2014.

Overall, this means, according to the economists, that despite their sluggish recovery in the aftermath of the Great Recession, monthly transition rates into employment are currently quite high for both the short-term and the long-term unemployed. For example, a 12 percent job-finding rate for the long-term unemployed would suggest that around 80 percent of the long-term unemployed find employment within a year.

Looking at other data, closer to the middle of the recession, they found that 36 percent of the long-term unemployed in the October 2012 to September 2013 period reported being employed one year later, compared with 52 percent of the short-term unemployed. They also found that these rates were higher for both groups before the Great Recession, with the rate at around 40 percent for the long-term unemployed and around 55 percent for the short-term unemployed.

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