Tuesday, December 9, 2014

CFOs, Treasurers Say Business Optimism at Pre-recession High – AFP Survey

Another indication the Fed manipulated boom is on.

The Association for Financial Professionals Business Outlook Survey, which has tracked business predictions of CFOs, corporate treasurers and other financial executives for the last 11 years, found that 44 percent of finance executives expect the U.S. economy to grow between 2.0 and 2.9 percent, while 31 percent are even more optimistic and expect it to grow between 3.0 and 3.9 percent.

The AFP is the professional society that represents finance executives globally.

Among those surveyed, 49 percent say their companies anticipate hiring workers in 2015.
  • The U.S. economy will grow by a median of 2.7 percent, slightly faster than 2014.
  • Nonfarm employment will expand by 1.9 million jobs, with 49 percent of companies adding workers in the U.S.
  • Among companies with workers outside the U.S., 43 percent expect to add non-U.S. jobs.
  • Consumer prices will rise by 1.6 percent, staying below the Federal Reserve’s two percent inflation target rate.
  • U.S. dollar will continue to appreciate against other major currencies.
I am not looking at this survey as an indication of the actual numbers on given data that will develop in the economy. I believe some of the survey results are way off, such as the low inflation forecast,and others are problematic, such as the growth rate for GDP.What I am looking at is the growing confidence levels indicated by the forecasts, which gives me an indication of where we stand in the economy in terms of the business cycle, and an indication of likely trends in inflation, given the confidence levels. The more confidence, the more likely businesses are to spend their cash balances, putting upward pressure on prices.

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