Monday, January 26, 2015

What Next for Greece?

First key date: Greece’s current financial bailout program is scheduled to expire on February 28.

Watch to see if the expiration date is extended.

Next key dates:

Some €4.3bn of debt repayments fall due in March.

More than €6bn fall due in July and August.

Will a deal be cut before these dates or  will the new Greek government default?

The incoming Greek Prime Minister  Alexis Tsipras has suggested an arrangement under which Greece would repay its debts according to a formula based on future Greek economic growth rates. He has also proposed a European debt conference that would abolish or restructure large amounts of Greek debt, just as was done for Germany in 1953.(Source:FT)

There's establishment panic, especially given that the Syriza party has formed a coalition government with the Independent Greeks. Via The Guardian:
Wolf Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence reckons that a Syriza/Independent Greeks coalition is the ‘worst possible outcome.

He told Bloomberg that:

At the end of the day, the Independent Greeks are a conspiracy-prone, nationalist party.

Piccoli fears that’s there’s nothing in this coalition to temper their approach to austerity or to smooth negotiations with the Troika

It is a bad mix, and no experience in government on either side.


  1. Bringing up the 1953 Germany Debt agreement won't help. Firstly the US wanted a Bulwark against the communist threat (such as it was) and had deep pockets. Now everyone is broke and Greece isn't on the front lines of anything and now they irritate and embarass the Germans by rattling the old Nazi Skeleton in the Germen closet.

  2. A good populist right-left mix, as we need in the US, like a Libertarian-OWS coalition to get rid of the banksters rule.

  3. Couldn't Syriza just take a few bribes and continue business as usual by changing some labels, moving a few debts around, and orchestrating PR kabuki with the Germans? Really, these are politicians we're talking about. Not just politicians, socialist politicians. Socialist Greek politicians!

    The possibility of a complete sell-out seems insufficiently discounted.

    1. sure.... until your angry mobs of greeks storm the polling places in the next election or perhaps a little sooner when police cars are tipped over and set on fire.