Friday, May 22, 2015

A Note to Those Who Don't Think the Federal Reserve is Going to Raise Rates This Year

The idea that the Fed will soon launch a new round of Quantitative Easing seems nearly zero.

I have been pounding away the point in the EPJ Daily Alert that the Fed will raise rates this year. There is no new round of QE just around the corner.

To be sure, this is not going to be a stepped increase in rates from FOMC meeting to FOMC meeting, but it won't be "One and done." The Fed is headed for a "One and watch" posture. They would like to implement a series of rate hikes but they are scared to death of what a rate hike will do to the bond market (and rightfully so), but that fist rate hike is coming this year--probably no later than the September FOMC meeting.



  1. Bob you say no QE but yes interest raising. I believe Peter Schiff keeps saying is QE most likely and that they won't be able to raise rates even though they should. It should be interesting.

  2. The only way the Fed raises is when they are dragged kicking and screaming by a dramatically falling bond market. Now if the equity market falls 5-10%, they will hurry to initiate another QE plan without reservation. The Fed is always painfully slow to raise rates and so very quick to lower rates at any sign of trouble. This is because it is the servant of Wall Street.

    The Fed is there to help the banking cartel. They could not care less about full employment or rising wage pressures,GDP or the dollar. Sure, they may officially talk or tweet about these issues, but their actions suggest they take their marching orders from the big Wall Street banks.

  3. I have no idea if the Fed will raise rates this year but I do think the strategy to track Fed member comments and take them at their word is very sound for EPJ. If rates are raised demand for RW's service will certainly increase. If rates are not raised RW can minimize the fallout by convincingly critiquing the Fed double talk. Either way viewership should increase for EPJ.


  4. It may be that the market is raising rates and the Fed is forced to talk as if it is Fed action.