Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Tyler Cowen Warns on Bitcoin

He writes:
What does the disappearance of Bitcoin price volatility mean?

The price has been pretty stable as of late.  But I say this is bad news for Bitcoin.  Instead it’s evidence for the Match.com theory of internet services, namely that they are up and running in more or less mature form pretty quickly.  If there were an ongoing, fluctuating chance of Bitcoin “taking off,” its price likely would be more volatile.  In the above-linked graph, however, you will see a slow downward trend, which may reflect a falling chance of the status quo ever being greatly different than it is right now.

Makes sense to me, declining volume in a stock in a downtrend is generally not a very good sign.


1 comment:

  1. So lack of volatility signals Bitcoin’s fundamental unsuitability as currency. Just as volatility used to signal Bitcoin’s fundamental unsuitability as currency. Right.