The expectation of traders of an interest-rate increase next month reached 52 percent Wednesday, up from just 38 percent just two days earlier.
But the strong likelihood of a September rate hike comes as no surprise to EPJ Daily Alert subscribers. I have identified September as the most likely for a Fed rate hike for some time.
But the rate hike is still not in the bag. For the ALERT, I am monitoring key data that will be released early in September that will provide much more guidance on what the Fed will do.
Also, there is a growing threat of a stock market crash, which, if one does occur before the Fed monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, would, of course, put the rate hike on hold.
-RW
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