Wednesday, January 27, 2016

BOOM New Home Sales Up 10.8 Percent

New home sales in December climbed 10.8 percent to a 544,000 annualized rate, according to the Commerce Department.

For the full year 2015, new home sales rose 14.7 percent to 501,000 from 437,000 in 2014.

This is not what the downside of the Fed-created boom-bust cycle looks like.



  1. That's the number of homes for sale, not sold. (238K for dec 2015)
    I wanted to see the historical context so I went to the census website and could not get those numbers for sales and then realized what the legend says. Changed to for sale and got matching numbers.

    For historical context, when I run it for new single family homes sold, it's at early 1990s levels.

    1. Chart corrected.

      The point is the trend not the absolute number of houses sold.

    2. Yes, of course, but after eight years of unprecedented intervention into the economy, six years after the official end of the recession, this measure has simply clawed its way up to a level on par with the bottom of a recession 25 years ago. If this is the boom, what's the bust going to look like?

  2. I forgot to note, the chart is for sale, the text is sold and matches what is on the census website. similar to 1990-91.

  3. You are correct, Robert, it's not what the "downside of a Fed created boom looks like" but it may be what the "top" of a Fed created boom looks like. I live in a hot real estate market and follow things closely. Inventory is low BUT homes (resale) are suddenly sitting on the market and not moving. I have confirmed this with several brokers. Some blame it on unreasonably high asking prices; some on the falling stock market. Whatever...I think that we are at or near the top this cycle.