Monday, January 4, 2016

Key Fed Official Sees Up to Five Rate Hikes This Year

The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as many as five times this year, said San Francisco Fed President John Williams, this morning during an interview on CNBC.

“I think something in that three-to-five rate hike range makes sense, at least at this time,” Williams said.

The US stock market was diving as he spoke, because of an earlier halt in trading in China, but Williams said he was not surprised or concerned by weak Chinese data, which launched the break overseas.

Williams said the U.S. economy is “in very good shape” and remains stronger than other major global economies.

China has been undergoing a pretty significant shift for some time away from manufacturing toward consumer spending, he said.

Williams comments are important to monitor, not because he is an opinion leader at the Fed, but because he succeeded Fed chair Janet Yellen as president of the SF Fed. Prior to that he worked as one of Yellen's aides and appears to remain close to her and generally reflects her thinking when making public comments.

I am not prepared to make a forecast as to how many rate hikes the Fed will make in 2016, if any, but the idea that the are going to reverse the recent rate hike anytime soon does not appear a solid view.



  1. US is in very good shape..... let me correct that for him, the people in the US he works for are in great shape.

    1. Yes, and inflated assets like stocks are nominally high, so in that sense are in "great shape."

      I double dog dare them to try raising rates over 1%. Hilarious.

      Actually I wish they would just do it. Let's get the bubble pricked so they can kick off QE4 and NIRP and we can get on with the final destruction of the economy and currency to be able to look forward to the hope for something sound emerging from the aftermath. Anything but the current interminable fake prosperity malaise.