Sunday, February 28, 2016

Indications of Surprise by Keynesian Economists in the Strength of the Economy

Citi's Economic Surprise Index has been surging lately.

The Index is a data series that measures how data releases have generally compared to economists’ prior expectations. When data is coming in weaker than expected, it declines; when data is coming in stronger than expected, it rises.

Keynesians just don't understand the business cycle.



And then we have this:


  1. RW, as I've said, you and Zero Hedge, Stockman, Mish, etc., see very different things going on. As 2016 progresses, someone will be proved right.

    1. RW is looking at shorter term opportunity in the market- a change in the data or policies or world market could quickly change his domestic economic views.

  2. Replies
    1. Yes, but they still post some of the most interesting looks inside how broken the system really is. Like most libertarian-minded people, the Tylers understand that the current world macroeconomic stability is illusory and could tank hard in a short time span. The difference is that they think it is imminent, while RW and I (and many others) know that the elite still have some ammunition. It might be their last stockpiles, but that is unknowable at this point.

    2. I don't think it's wise to assume all or even the most influential of the so-called elite will desire starving off a crash. Some may even want a crash to benefit themselves.