Thursday, June 14, 2018

The Subtle But Important Announcement Fed Chairman Jay Powell Made Yesterday



Tate Lacey explains:
One notable development [during yesterday's press conference by Fed chairman Powell] was Powell’s announcement that, starting in January, all eight FOMC meetings will be followed by a press conference. Currently, the Fed Chair takes questions from the press only once per quarter, or after every other meeting.  Powell was quick to add that this change offered “no signal [for] policy rates,” and that it was being made only to improve communications.  However, those comments do not ring true. Since first lifting rates off their zero lower bound in December 2015, the FOMC has only raised rates during meetings that were followed by a press conference, also known as “live” meetings; and it’s now generally assumed that the FOMC will only adjust policy rates at a live meeting.  Internal pressure for adjusting this expectation was building. For example, new Atlanta Fed President and current FOMC voter Rafael Bostic considered the live meeting public expectation to be “a sign that what [the Fed is] doing right now isn’t working.” There were two options available that could convince the public and markets that policy rates could change at any meeting: one, the Fed could adjust rates at a meeting without a press conference or two, every FOMC meeting could be followed by a press conference. Chair Powell chose the second option.

RW note: The Fed is so unsure of its policy ramifications that it wants to be able to adjust more often that is what is going on here.

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