Thursday, November 22, 2018

Did Larry Kudlow Just Set Himself Up to Be Mocked for the Rest of History?

President Trump's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow may have just uttered the words that will make him infamous.

Yup, this may put him right there with economist Irving Fisher who said just days before the great October 1929 stock market crash:

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months. 
 Kudlow on the day before Thanksgiving said this to reporters at the White House:
My personal view, our administration's view, recession is so far in the distance I can't see it.
This is quite different from my view. In yesterday's EPJ Daily Alert, I wrote:
It sure is beginning to look like we are in the very early stages of a recession. 
But like television election night statisticians, I don't want to call a close race too early. There is still time for the Fed to turn this around with a burst of money supply growth  but it isn't happening yet. 
Very likely at the end of this year, I will be warning about a 2019 recession.

No comments:

Post a Comment