Saturday, December 8, 2018

Fed Chairman Says U.S. Economy Performing Very Well (Hint: He has no clue.)

Jay "Everything is fine." Powell
I am saving this for future reference.

This past Thursday, before the Housing Assistance Council's 2018 Rural Housing Conference in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jay Powell told the audience that, "the economy is strong overall."

Mark the date: December 06, 2018.

At the same time this is going on, using the same methods that I used to call the Great Recession in real time, I am now warning in the EPJ Daily Alert that I am very likely, within a few weeks, to be forecasting a recession in 2019.

Powell, like most mainstream economists, don't really have a business cycle theory of how it forms and why it busts. They just look at past immediate economic data.

Thus, they can never spot the downturn of the cycle as it is developing.

It appears it is developing now. A few more weeks of the monetary activity I am seeing now,  discussed in the ALERT, and there is little chance that a recession will be avoided.

Powell has no clue as to the economic freight train that is very likely to hit him.


1 comment:

  1. Is it going to be a just a recession or another great recession?