So much for Austrian-lites who have been forecasting a downturn in the economy since, at least, December 2015 when the Fed hiked the Fed Funds rate to the target range of 0.25% to 0.50%.
It is four years later andd the current Fed Funds rate is set at the target range of 1.75% to 2.00% and there is still no recession.
Indeed, the Labor Department reported today that the jobless rate has dropped to 3.5% in September, marking the lowest jobless rate since December 1969.
Austrian-lites simply have a very shallow understanding of Austrian school business cycle theory.
-RW
But, of course, the official unemployment rate when compared to other tallies tell a different story. Shadowstats, for instance, shows unemployment with those discouraged-no longer looking people,when included, to be much, much higher.
ReplyDeleteIf the point is if we are in a recession, what you want to look at is the trend of unemployment versus an exact number. The trend has been down for SS also. It has nothing to do with the absolute number.
DeleteThe trend downward at shadowstats is tiny compared to U3 and U6, but point taken.
DeleteStill thousands on Linked In looking for work. I'm doubtful about these numbers. It's always a mix with an economy as large as the US. Krogers, HP, and others have announced layoffs.
DeleteYeah all this confirms is no one wants to work these days and a conventional single living wage job does not really exist in this part time economy.
ReplyDeleteWe have a huge shortage of workers here in Fairbanks. Trucks drivers are in really really high demand, can make $3,000+ a week right now, driving as an employee. I’m paying $3,000 a week for 6 days a week, and need at least 15 more people, but so does every other company in town. We lost a large number of people when Alaska’s slump hit 4 years ago. We will see if many come back.
ReplyDeleteHave worked in manufacturing for a long time and not sure about Alaska, but lots of remote locations for factories need lots of skilled labor. Electricians with controls experience are in especially high demand. Not what a recession looks or feels like. Unemployment would be even lower if some people would be willing to relocate to the more remote jobs for work.
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