Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Tucker Carlson: How Long Will the Lockdowns Last?

Tucker Carlson is excellent here:

And this is important to note from a New York Times piece by Dr. Joshua Rabinowitz, professor of chemistry and genomics and Dr. Caroline Bartman, a genomic researcher:
The importance of viral dose is being overlooked in discussions of the coronavirus. As with any other poison, viruses are usually more dangerous in larger amounts. Small initial exposures tend to lead to mild or asymptomatic infections, while larger doses can be lethal.

From a policy perspective, we need to consider that not all exposures to the coronavirus may be the same. Stepping into an office building that once had someone with the coronavirus in it is not as dangerous as sitting next to that infected person for an hourlong train commute.

This may seem obvious, but many people are not making this distinction. We need to focus more on preventing high-dose infection.

Both small and large amounts of virus can replicate within our cells and cause severe disease in vulnerable individuals such as the immunocompromised. In healthy people, however, immune systems respond as soon as they sense a virus growing inside. Recovery depends on which wins the race: viral spread or immune activation.

Virus experts know that viral dose affects illness severity. In the lab, mice receiving a low dose of virus clear it and recover, while the same virus at a higher dose kills them. Dose sensitivity has been observed for every common acute viral infection that has been studied in lab animals, including coronaviruses.

Humans also exhibit sensitivity to viral dose. Volunteers have allowed themselves to be exposed to low or high doses of relatively benign viruses causing colds or diarrhea. Those receiving the low doses have rarely developed visible signs of infection, while high doses have typically led to infections and more severe symptoms...

Low-dose infections can even engender immunity, protecting against high-dose exposures in the future. Before the invention of vaccines, doctors often intentionally infected healthy individuals with fluid from smallpox pustules. The resulting low-dose infections were unpleasant but generally survivable, and they prevented worse incidents of disease when those individuals were later exposed to smallpox in uncontrolled amounts.

Despite the evidence for the importance of viral dose, many of the epidemiological models being used to inform policy during this pandemic ignore it. This is a mistake.



  1. I think moms in the fifties had "Chicken Pox parties" Where kids would gather at an infected kid's house, get a dose, and get it over with. According to the theory espoused in this article, they probably got a low dose, which makes sense.
    I know my dad never got the mumps until he was 27, but then caught it and lost a testicle. He always blamed my coming along later as bad luck.

  2. The NYT article about viral dose suggests that the mandated shut down may actually cause more harm tom people relative to the virus. We already know the shut down has caused immeasurable harm to our commercial and social life. End the shut down now.