Calculate Changes To Your Taxes Under McCain and Obama Proposals

Here.

Note: Actual tax hikes will vary, and will likely be much higher. HT2GM

Obama Tries To Lock It Down

Barack Obama is running as many as seven ads for every one of John McCain's, in certain key states. Overall, he s spending $4.00 to every $1.00 spent by Mccain.

Obama reported spending $82 million on advertising during the first two weeks of October -- more than half of what Sen. John F. Kerry spent on television commercials for the entire 2004 presidential campaign, according to WaPo.

Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission late Thursday show that Obama and the Democratic Party committees that are supporting his effort spent nearly $105 million from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15. McCain and Republican Party entities, by contrast, spent approximately $25 million.

FYI: The Final Presidential Debate...

...between John McCain and Barack Obama is scheduled for Wednesday October 15, 2008 at 9:00 ET.

Obama on McCain and the Keating Five

Overall, a pretty good 13 minute documentary on the Keating Five, with emphasis on John McCain. Of course, since this is an Obama production, and even though the documentary shows how power brokers squeeze regulators, the documentary calls for more regulators, which in my book means more points at which pressure and corruption can take place.nd , as I have pointed out before, Government Is Not God.

KeatingEconomics.com

The Obama campaign has launched KeatingEconomics.com. The site goes after John McCain and his role as one of the Keating Five in the savings and loan scandal. At noon a 13-minute documentary will be released on the site.

In Defense Of 'Rumor' Mongering, Short Sellers

By Robert Wenzel

Investment banking stocks are crashing and regulators are all in a huff. They are aggressively harassing short-sellers.

SEC Chairman Chris Cox previously announced a ban on naked short selling, even though regulations already existed that banned that specific type of short sale. On Thursday, Cox proposed requiring hedge funds to post daily the short positions they have in stocks.

New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, tried to one-up Cox, and has started a "wide-ranging investigation" of his own into short selling and has called for the SEC to put a " freeze on short selling of financial stocks on a temporary basis."

Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who apparently isn't satisfied with calling for war against Iran, Russia and China, wants to see battle also joined against short sellers. In fact on Thursday, he called for the firing of the wonderfully incompetent and ineffective SEC chairman Christopher Cox.

So what gives? Are short-sellers the evil monsters of Wall Street?

No there are not and, as Walter Block might say, they are, in fact, heroes.

To understand what is going on, one must realize that the structure of the now collapsing financial industry was built upon the money pumping ways of Alan Greenspan and the early Ben Bernanke. It was easy for the macho, testosterone fueled big swinging dick investment bankers of Wall Street to borrow the money that Greenspan and Bernake printed at the below normal market rates.

Since the Fed operates on the short term end of the interest rate spectrum, that's where investment bankers borrowed their billions. Borrow at the low short-term rates and lend long on mortgages and the like at higher rates, and earn the spread. That was the Fed enabled game. The more billions you borrowed, the more you earned. And the Fed certainly accommodated the Wall Street players. Even early this year, three month annualized M2 money growth was moving along at double digit rates. Indeed, in March, three month annualized money growth was 12.5% Then something peculiar happened a few months ago. Either Ben Bernanke became a closet Austrian economist (The only ones who really understand business cycle theory, and who would call for a complete end to money supply manipulation) or he really didn't understand mainstream economic monetary theory well enough to realize he was dramatically slowing the money supply. (Note: I'm not betting he is a closet Austrian. My bet is he is incompetent and bumbled his way into slowing money growth.) As of last Thursday, three month annualized M2 money growth was only 1.5%.

Now Wall Street investment bankers need fresh new money all the time, to keep the long term assets they bought with short term money, financed. With less new money being created, it was a case of musical monetary chairs. There were more investment bankers needing "financing chairs", then actual financing out there. Lehman was the first to find itself short of funds.With hedge funds being run by very aggressive, very savvy traders, it did not take them long to realize that there was a shortage of money to finance the current financial structure. Always seeking profit from whatever the financial situation, the hedgies poured over financial statements to see who was the most vulnerable investment bank. Who leveraged the most? and Who would never be able to find the money to support the previous financial structure? were the questions they asked. The name Bear Stearns popped up. And thus the hedgies shorted whatever Bear Stearns stock they could find. Once loaded up, they, of course, told the world what a financial wreck Bear Stearns was--and thus became labeled rumor mongers, In fact, they were speaking truth to Wall Street, not rumors.

Once Bear Stearns was wiped out, they moved on to identify and load up short positions in others who played in the Federal Reserve induced high leverage game. Next came Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, then Lehman Brothers and then AIG. So what was the role of the short-selling hedge funds?

They scoured the balance sheets to discover who was overly leveraged--so we wouldn't have to. They leaked to the financial press who was in trouble--so we could get the news with our morning paper and they speeded up the financial crisis so that it occurred in just weeks instead of months or years. As a result of their aggressive due diligence, they pointed out a mis-match and shortage of funds that would otherwise have taken months, if not years to become clear and unwound. The economic mess would have dragged on and on. They are, indeed, heroes. And as if in an Ayn Rand novel, they will be harassed and investigated by the evil keepers of the ugly, manipulative, inflation created, status quo.

Christopher Cox, Andrew Cuomo and John McCain will pander to the unthinking masses, satisfy their status quo sponsors on Wall Street, and harass, interrogate, regulate and attempt to destroy the true heroes of this financial drama.

But the drama doesn't end here. There may be a kind of Benedict Arnold in cahoots with the hedge funds.

Very little on Wall Street is exactly as it seems. It is so even with our hedge fund heroes, since I suspect that Treasury Secretary Paulson may have played some type of role in the early short-selling escapades. While our hedge fund/short selling operators may have been involved in a noble cause, the role of Treasury Secretary Paulson may have been to use these short-sellers as his tool to wipe-out competitors, so that the Fed money printing game will be the exclusive domain of Paulson's old firm Goldman Sachs. It is noteworthy than Paulson's lapdog, Ben Bernanke, may have accelerated the money printing presses again at this time, just when it appears that Goldman Sachs may be the only major independent investment bank left standing--and just before the hedgies started to take a good hard look to see why Goldman shouldn't end up in the same trash bin as its competitors.

It is very important to keep in mind what Robert Novak reported about, one, Hank Paulson: "Hank is for Hank." And it is also important to keep in mind, as the inevitable hearings and mud slinging begins, that hedge fund short sellers are as much heroes warning of  dangerous balance sheets as was Paul Revere in his midnight ride and warnings.

Robert Wenzel is an economic consultant and Editor & Publisher of EconomicPolicyJournal.com. He can be reached at rw@economicpolicyjournal.com.

McCain Would Fire SEC Chair Cox

Republican presidential candidate John McCain, campaigning in Iowa Thursday, is expected to call for the firing of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Chris Cox.

In his prepared remarks, Sen. McCain (Ariz.), without naming Cox, said the chairman has “betrayed the public’s trust.”

“If I were president today, I would fire him,” McCain will say, according to his prepared remarks.

This is swatting a gnat while a tiger and lion are headed towards you. McCain doesn't have a clue.

This crisis is a Paulson and his lapdog, Bernanke, operation.

Except for his nonsense about short-sellers, Cox has been incompetently benign during this entire crisis. Incompetently benign in a bureaucrat is not a bad thing.

-Robert Wenzel

Obama Raised $66 Million In August

He reached the $66 million mark with help from more than a half million new donors.

Obama's total for August was almost $20 million more than the $47 million Republican rival John McCain raised last month.

Obama's campaign said that with the latest figures he had more than $77 million cash on hand.

Obama's fundraisers have estimated that he still has to do better in September and October, than the August haul of $66 million, to remain on par with McCain and the Republican National Committee. The RNC has more money to spend on McCain's behalf than the Democratic Party has to aid Obama.

-EPJ Newsdesk

Straight Talk From Alaksa

Rep. Les Gara’s take on John McCain’s spin and interference with the bi-partisan “Troopergate”/Sarah Palin Investigation is here.

Phil Gramm Still Hustling For John McCain

Phil Gramm was supposedly unceremoniously dumped by John McCain from his campaign after Gramm said the economy was just in a "mental recession" and that the country was a "nation of whiners." 

Gramm has since stated that he is "just another citizen supporting McCain."

But it sure looks like Citizen Gramm is providing advice and working behind the scenes muscle for McCain.

At a recent private business roundtable, Gramm defended the campaign’s vetting of Sarah Palin to be McCain’s running mate by saying, “We went through a process of vetting all possible candidates.”

"We"?

Now, Ron Paul has spilled the beans that Gramm has been hustling for McCain to get a McCain endorsement out of Paul:

[At a press conference] Paul revealed that a McCain representative, who he did not name, had called him as part of what has been a recent effort to score an endorsement.

Later, Paul told The [Los Angeles] Times' Janet Hook the go-between was Gramm

-Robert Wenzel

Report: McCain Has Serious Undisclosed Ailments

Heavy weight Canadian-based reporter Eric Margolis writes in his most recent column:

One of McCain’s old friends in Washington told me the senator has serious but so far undisclosed ailments. Americans had better think hard about President Palin from Alaska.

Margolis' report should not be taken lightly. He is a regular commentator for CBC TV (Canadian Broadcast Television), CNN, CNN International, FOX and CTV (Canadian Television).

He has appeared on 'Good Morning America', ABC TV News, CBS TV News, PBS New York, Sky News Britain.

He is a graduate of:

School Of Foreign Service, Georgetown University

University of Geneva, Switzerland

New York University

He does not report matters, unless he has the goods.

Palin's Convention Speech Brings in Cash for Obama

Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin is bringing in campaign cash for the Democrats as well as her own party.

Barack Obama reported raising at least $10 million from more than 130,000 donors today after Palin, the Alaska governor, addressed the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, yesterday.

The money followed an e-mail solicitation campaign manager David Plouffe ``You know that despite what John McCain and his attack squad say, every day people have the power to build something extraordinary when we come together,'' he wrote.

McCain raised $10 million after Palin was selected as his running mate Aug. 29.

Source: Bloomberg via Yahoo

Is Phil Gramm a Behind the Scenes McCain Advisor?

John McCain threw Phil Gramm under the bus as an advisor, when Gramm got into hot water in July for telling a newspaper that Americans are a “nation of whiners,” and that the United States only suffers from “a mental recession.”

But is Gramm really gone?

According to Bloomberg, Gramm excluded McCain elite supporters from his description of Americans as ``a nation of whiners.''

``If you're sitting here today, you're not economically illiterate and you're not a whiner, so I'm not worried about who you're going to vote for,'' the former Texas senator told attendees at a Financial Services Roundtable event in Minneapolis on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention.

Supposedly at the roundtable, Gramm also defended the campaign’s vetting of Sarah Palin to be McCain’s running mate by saying, “We went through a process of vetting all possible candidates.”

"We"? Is Gramm still provding Gramm sideline advice?

Gramm is beyond doubt the best tutor McCain could have as far as an economic advisor. The man knows economics. But as evidenced by his "nation of whiners" and "a mental recession" comments, though economically accurate at the time, they were politically tone deaf comments.

If the tone deaf Gramm was advising McCain on his vice-presidential that resulted in the pick of the daffy Palin, it explains a lot.

McCain Camp Threatens Legal Action Against the National Enquirer

CBS News' John Bentley reports:

John McCain’s campaign threatened legal action against the National Enquirer today for running a story about McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, allegedly having an affair with her husband’s business partner.

“Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin look forward to discussing the issues that Americans care about, fixing broken government, creating jobs, making our country energy independent and securing the peace for the next generation by bringing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to a victorious end,” said Schmidt.

“Legal action will be considered with regard to this disgraceful smear.”

The National Enquirer responded via Drudge:

The National Enquirer's coverage of a vicious war within Sarah Palin's extended family includes several newsworthy revelations, including the resulting incredible charge of an affair plus details of family strife when the Governor's daughter revealed her pregnancy. Following our John Edwards' exclusives, our political reporting has obviously proven to be more detail-oriented than the McCain campaign's vetting process. Despite the McCain camp's attempts to control press coverage they find unfavorable, The Enquirer will continue to pursue news on both sides of the political spectrum.

UPDATE: Did Sarah Palin Have Affairs With Two Of Her Husband's Business Partners? Details here.

Republicans Suspend Most of Convention Activities Monday

With Hurricane Gustav heading toward the Gulf Coast, Senator John McCain announced that Republican Party activities on Monday in St. Paul would be suspended except for necessary business. He called on his party members to "take off our Republican hats and put on out American hats."

What the hell does McCain think he is going to do, hold down someone's umbrella?

File under: Nutty

Did I Say Daffy...

Sarah Palin is in way over her head. It sounded daffy to me that Palin had a fifth child at 44, as I pointed out in my post Sarah Palin: Daffy With A Touch of Igloo Trash , just this morning:

Then, of course, there is the curious fact that, though she already has four children, is the Governor of Alaska and is in her 40's, she has another child.

Also, in looking over pics, to find one of Sarah Palin with the baby, I noticed that most of the pictures of the McCain-Palin public announcement of the Republican ticket had Bristol in the background lovingly holding the baby. My thought at that point, and there was no reason to then blog it, was that Bristol wanted a baby real bad. She just had that look of care about the baby.

Now, the theory has broken that the most recent baby may not be Sarah's but that of her daughter, Bristol.

From the Alaska Daily News March, 6, 2008 via the Daily Kos:

JUNEAU -- Gov. Sarah Palin shocked and awed just about everybody around the Capitol on Wednesday when she announced she's expecting her fifth child.

The governor, who recently turned 44, told a handful of reporters as she was leaving work to expect a new member of the first family, then headed to a reception at the Baranof Hotel to feast on king crab.

Palin said she's already about seven months along, with the baby due to arrive in mid-May.

That the pregnancy is so advanced astonished all who heard the news. The governor, a runner who's always been trim, simply doesn't look pregnant.

Even close members of her staff said they only learned this week their boss was expecting.

Daily Kos:

Apparently her teenage daughter was out of school, unseen, for months, because she "had mono".

You really have to blame John McCain for this. He plucked a woman, literally out of the wilderness, to be his running mate, without properly vetting her. Supposedly, the McCain camp didn't even know that Palin was under investigation for ethics violations for trying to get her former brother-in-law fired as a state trooper. Though she has high, albeit declining, approval ratings in Alaska, my guess is she was almost in over her head in Alaska, never mind a heartbeat away from the presidency.

UPDATE: Who would have figured? There are TWO pregnancies outside the middle of the bell curve, in the Palin family. We now have a very plausible explanation of "pregnancygate”. Sarah delivered a baby, Trig, and according to Sarah and Todd Palin in the following statement:

Our beautiful daughter Bristol came to us with news that as parents we knew would make her grow up faster than we had ever planned.

We're proud of Bristol's decision to have her baby and even prouder to become grandparents. As Bristol faces the responsibilities of adulthood, she knows she has our unconditional love and support.

UPDATE 2:

This may not be over. Stay tuned. McCain and Palin might be off the charts nutty with what they are trying to pull off.

Begala: Is McCain Out of His Mind?

Democratic strategist Paul Begala on McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as VP:

John McCain needs what Kinky Friedman calls "a checkup from the neck up."

In choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his running mate he is not tinking "outside the box," as some have said. More like out of his mind.

Palin a first-term governor of a state with more reindeer than people, will have to put on a few pounds just to be a lightweight. Her personal story is impressive: former fisherman, mother of five. But that hardly qualifies her to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

For a man who is 72 years old and has had four bouts with cancer to have chosen someone so completely unqualified to become president is shockingly irresponsible. Suddenly, McCain's age and health become central issues in the campaign, as does his judgment.

In choosing this featherweight, McCain passed over Tom Ridge, a decorated combat hero, a Cabinet secretary and the former two-term governor of the large, complex state of Pennsylvania. iReport.com: 'McCain pick might be a gimmick'

He passed over Mitt Romney, who ran a big state, Massachusetts; a big company, Bain Capital; and a big event, the Olympics.

He passed over Kay Bailey Hutchison, the Texas senator who is knowledgeable about the military, good on television, and -- obviously -- a woman.

He passed over Joe Lieberman, his best friend in the Senate and fellow Iraq Kool-Aid drinker.

He passed over former congressman, trade negotiator and budget director Rob Portman.

And he also passed over Mike Huckabee, the governor of Arkansas.

For months, the McCainiacs have said they will run on his judgment and experience. In his first presidential decision, John McCain has shown he is willing to endanger his country, potentially leaving it in the hands of someone who simply has no business being a heartbeat away from the most powerful, complicated, difficult job in human history.

Sarah Palin: Not An Economic Genius

Sarah Palin , John McCain's new vice-presidential running mate, will fit right in with McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, given her total lack of understanding of basic economics.

There's not a lot out there on the internet about Palin (Most likely because she hasn't done much.) But she can be tracked the way a bear in Alaska can be tracked. Alaskan bears dump enough dung, as the Alaska Department of Fish and Game puts it, that you can tell what type bear lies ahead by examining the dung they leave in their tracks.

The Alaska Fish and Game says:

Outdoorsmen should recognize the difference between black bear and grizzly bear dung.

Black bear dung is smaller and contains lots of berries and squirrel fur. Grizzly bear dung has little bells in it and smells like pepper.

Palin's dung may not be left behind in quantities that would make a grizzly proud, but, never the less, a search of her record reveals some dung that doesn't appear to be as pretty as the black bears' with berries or the grizzlies' with bells---but it sure does stink.

In a move that would make Obama proud, but which makes no economic sense, Palin proposed giving Alaskans $100-a-month energy debit cards. Of course, basic economics teaches the last thing you want to do, when a commodity is rising in price, is to encourage consumption. She also proposed providing grants to electrical utilities so that they would reduce customers' rates, again the last thing you want to do. She subsequently dropped the debit card proposal, and in its place she proposed to send Alaskans $1,200 directly.

The debit card proposal may be just one clue that we may have a very big spender on our hands. Clue #2: As governor, in June 2007, Palin signed into law a $6.6 billion operating budget—the largest in Alaska's history.

Clue#3: In a real nutty escapade, when the Alaska Creamery Board recommended closing Matanuska Maid Dairy, an unprofitable state-owned business, Palin objected, citing concern for the impact on dairy farmers and the fact that the dairy had just received $600,000 in state money. When Palin realized that the Board of Agriculture and Conservation appoints Creamery Board members, she simply replaced the entire membership of the Board of Agriculture and Conservation The new board reversed the decision to close the dairy. The new board approved milk price increases offered by the dairy in an attempt to control losses, even though milk from Washington was already offered in Alaskan stores at lower prices. In the end, the dairy was forced to close.

On a more positive note, Palin strongly supports drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

In a move that would make Chcago poltcans proud, Palin is currently under investigation by an independent investigator hired by a legislative panel to determine if she abused her power when firing Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan. On July 11, 2008, Palin dismissed Walter Monegan as Commissioner of Public Safety and instead offered him a position as executive director of the state Alcoholic Beverage Control Board, which he subsequently turned down. Monegan alleged shortly after his dismissal that it may have been partly due to his reluctance to fire an Alaska State Trooper, Mike Wooten, who had been involved in a divorce and child custody battle with Palin's sister, Molly McCann.

A governor for just 20 months, prior to that she was two-term mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, a town with a population of 6,500.

McCain To Launch 'Special' Ad Around the Time Obama Speaks

Politco is reporting:

Tonight, John McCain will talk directly to his opponent in a television ad his campaign is airing in battleground states, around the time Barack Obama accepts the presidential nomination, McCain's campaign said...Obama is scheduled to speak between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m...

McCain campaign communications director Jill Hazelbaker said in an MSNBC appearance that the battleground spot is "an historic ad — I think this is the first of its kind."

"Sen. McCain is going to have an ad that's going to air in battleground states around the time that Sen. Obama is speaking tonight," Hazelbaker said. "He's going to be talking directly to his opponent. So, I'm going to leave it there. But it's going be very exciting. I think that a lot of people are going to focus on it."

Goldman's Obama Play

Goldman has just issued a report advising that hospital stocks could rally before the election, especially if it appears that Obama is going to be the winner. Goldman argues:

With hospitals trading at a modest discount to historical medians we believe the hospital stocks could rally if the prospects for health reform and expanded coverage are seen as increasing

The run-up to former President Clinton’s proposed health reform initiative saw hospital stocks outperform the market by 35% from 1993-94 supporting our view

Since Obama wants to provide universal health acre, the thinking goes that the 116 million uninsured will start flocking to medical facilities for every pain. And, it is more likely that the government will expand insurance coverage if Barrack Obama wins the election. As a result, an Obama presidency will be bullish for hospital stocks.