Friday, May 27, 2011

The Republican Nomination is a Neck and Neck and Neck and Neck Thing

The latest CNN poll shows four potential Republican presidential candidates within in 4 percentage points of each other:

Giuliani 16%

Romney 15%

Palin 13%

Paul 12%

Cain 10%

Gingrich 8%

Bachmann 7%

Pawlenty 5%

Santorum 2%

Huntsman 1%

Johnson 1%

Roemer *

What's most interesting about this new data is that with Mitt Romney's name recognition and establishment backing, he is doing nothing to distance himself from the pack. I don't think he has enough fire in the belly to go all the way. If he drops out at some point, Ron Paul has a chance to pick up a huge chunk of those votes. If Romney is out, Paul will be especially strong in heavily Mormon states such as Nevada and Utah. In many ways, on principle, Ron Paul is more Mormon than Romney. If Mormons start to look for an alternative to Romney, Paul is going to look very favorable. With Mormons at 3% of the population that puts that 3% from Romney's column into Paul's, and with the other 12% of Romney's vote split amongst all the candidates, it puts Ron Paul close to the top.  Then if Gary Johnson does the decent thing for liberty and drops out, Paul picks up that vote. Things could really start to get interesting


  1. I am praying big time for Dr. Paul. What's not to like? Visionary, and a complete honest human being in a den of lions.

    Who else running for the Republicans can speak like him.

    Must see video.


  2. Giuliani, Palin, and Romney...oh brother. *rolls eyes*

  3. Great video Scarlett. Glad to see it is getting a lot of views!

    Thanks, Bob, for bringing this kind of good news!

    PS, the shoutout was very cool.

    These almost rhyme.

  4. - The teachings of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons) does indeed mesh very well with libertarian principles placing a very high importance on people being free to choose
    - Most Mormons don't recognize that
    - Christ's teachings stress helping those in need and many Mormons confuse this as a relevant governmental activity
    - I'd expect Mormons to be concerned about legalized drugs, privatized schools, and military contraction
    - As Mormons are often viewed as extreme, there are some who desire to be seen as mainstream.
    - The LDS Church stays out of almost all political issues (marriage laws being a recent exception) and the only political discussions at church events are around July 4th or before elections when members are encouraged to vote but nothing is mentioned about issues or candidates.
    - For the most part all the LDS church teaches it's members about politics is that they should be involved citizens, vote, and that the constitution of the US was an inspired document.
    - The LDS Church was organized in 1830, which relatively wasn't that long after the Revolutionary war and Constitution. so there's a lot of very patriotic notions from the nation's founding that still permeate in the LDS Church.
    - Like the rest of the population, most simply haven't been presented with the compelling case for liberty frequently enough for it to overcome their public school and mainstream media "education."
    - I think giving Romney the entire Mormon vote is a bit generous. Mormons don't vote for Harry Reid just because he's Mormon.

  5. IMO, Paul (and maybe Herman Cain) is the only one that can truly pick up the independent and disenfranchised moderate democrat voter. In some back of the envelope math, with 14 electoral votes moving from blue states to red ones post census, this candidate need only win McCain's states plus the usual red states of NC and IN plus Florida to win the election. So it's almost irrelevant who the Republican candidate is - this will be a very tight race.

  6. Palin is a little easier on the eyes. Since we have to look at them for four years, that ought to count for something.

  7. I like Paul's character and his ideals. But he just doesn't have the charisma or presence at a public forum to win the nomination. And, Constitutionally, one of the primary characteristics required in a President is charisma.

    If he did, I'd vote for him in a heartbeat. In fact, I was going to vote for him last time. But he dropped out before the primaries got to my state.

    Mormons only make up about 2% not 3%. And only about 1/2 are active, practicing Mormons. So, 1% of the US population will even look at that as a factor. Then you have about 35% of that 1% who are registered democrats. And you have a large minority (I'm guessing 5% to 10%) with Libertarian and Constitutional leanings who outright reject Romney. Can we say "Romneycare?"

    And his statement about Moses didn't win him any religious favors from the LDS population.

    Bottom line, Romney's poll numbers are not significantly influenced by the Mormon vote.

  8. None of these folks will be able to help our country unless they have all 3 branches, and because of the right-wing error of wanting to push their religious views on the rest of the people they will do more damage to the nation than they will do good.

    What we need is a truly benevolent dictator who will throw congress in prison if they fail to leave Washington DC; then get down to the business of dictating the path forward to prevent our total financial collapse.

    I'm not hopeful that such a dictator will come forth and be elected, but that is THE ONLY POSSIBILITY for the USA to survive.