Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Did Ron Paul's Team Sell Out?

If nothing else, the announcement of the suspension of Ron Paul's active primary campaigning was poorly handled. It has caused confusion and suspicion. Ron Paul's top supporters are having to waste time defending the announcement and suspicions exist among some  Ron Paul supporters that there was some kind of sell out.

With huge crowds showing up recently in California and Texas (two upcoming primary states), there was an excitement about the campaign that was growing. Not necessarily because Ron Paul would win the election (the establishment would stop that), but because there was an indication of a truly large groundswell of support for liberty that could advance over the years.

But now this announcement that Ron Paul will not continue primary campaigning has caused a prick in the balloon.

The below email, from Andrew Isker to me, I suspect sums up how many are thinking:

After what happened in AZ and OK this weekend, don't you think the timing is weird for the strangely worded kinda-but-not-really campaign suspension? What do you think is going on? 
I think they have indeed ended the campaign.The whole "short on money" thing is odd. They have always had limited campaign cash and have avoided big primary states to begin with. Additionally, If they would have even intimated that they were short on cash and in danger of dropping out because of it, that would have made for a giant moneybomb. I think they (the Paul staffers, Jesse Benton, John Tate, etc.) got some kind of offer for the first time from the RNC and Romney and bit immediately. I really think the RNC and Romney were running scared after what happened this Saturday in AZ and OK, as well as what has already happened in MN, LA, NV, ME, IA, etc. Paul was getting some real momentum and the establishment got scared, and the Paul campaign jumped at an offer. The RNC and Romney knew Paul would never endorse Romney, that is not what Romney is after, but rather to not have anyone mess up his coronation, and Paul had absolutely no reason to make that awfully confusing non-suspension suspension. Perhaps we'll find out that Rand will be the VP (which I am not in favor of---he's much more effective in the Senate and is practically-speaking unable to challenge Romney in 2016). In my mind, they obviously sold out. The only question is what exactly they got.
Over time, we are likely to get a better sense for why the suspension announcement was made. But it has certainly caused a drain on the building enthusiasm and delegate battles. Who really cares now? Was this a sellout for paragraphs in  a platform that no one will read (and for positions for key Ron Paul staffers)? Pfft. Politics suck.

But the battle for liberty must go on. The hardcore advocates for liberty will regroup. As Ron Paul has told us many times, liberty is bigger than any one man--even Ron Paul. Dr.Paul has done wonderful things to bring the idea of liberty to very, very many and that is a great thing. But this announcement signals that the post-Ron Paul era is near. It's unclear today how the liberty movement will advance, but rest assured many will try to pull it in this direction or that. Time will tell if it is for the better or worse.

33 comments:

  1. The movement will advance at the local level. In 50 states and 3000 counties. And Mises.org are popping up in a new country every month.

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  2. One thing Ron Paul has never done is sold out so there is no reason to think that he has now.

    Romney's camp has obviously been very uneasy about RP's delegate count and if that's the case, why make a deal?

    There's something bigger at work here, I just don't know what it is. I agree the press release was very poorly worded but was that done on purpose or just a rush job?

    Ron Paul will still be nominated on the floor unless Romney reaches the magic number so it's not like Paul has automatically lost the race although the chances are slim.

    Even so, there are some serious issues raised about the Unit Rule and whether delegates are actually bound or not; it seems they aren't. I believe that quite a number of Ron Paul supporters became pledged delegates for the other three candidates hoping for a brokered convention and +2 or greater rounds of voting. These people may now be able to vote for Ron Paul in the first round and really raise a ruckus at the convention.

    There are lot of variables in play here and the story isn't over yet. Time will tell.

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    1. Difster,

      I have very similar thoughts. I believe too many RP supporters are allowing themselves to be worked into a frenzy over specious reasoning. At its core all politics is a numbers game and RP's numbers have been increasing substantially, thus it seems highly improbable that RP is bowing out or quitting or cut a deal. Seen from this angle I believe the grassroots needs to keep its proverbial nose to the grindstone until the end and it will, in all probability, pay off big.

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  3. While it is unclear what is going on I think the clearest exit was necessary and this, if so, was a rather poor way to do so. Many people have joined for liberty yes but a great many within the group still don't have the intellectual footing to stand on their own. what I would fear most is a sense of betrayal which could extinguish ones light and leave an awful taste. An abrupt exit as such may only cause discord and infighting which I hope the bigger movement can avoid. There is MUCH more work to be done I hope we have the human capital intact after this blow should fears be true.

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  4. Wow so the media took it upon themselves to announce Ron Paul suspended campaign because he's winning many states on the delegate level... He didn't from out or suspend the campaign. Just sloppy wording. Let's use this to try and fan the fire that is the Revolution.

    http://www.ronpaul2012.com/2012/05/14/ron-paul-has-not-suspended-his-campaign/

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  5. Or, from the glass half-full point of view. Doug Wead said on his blog that after AZ, Paul now had enough states to be nominated from the floor in Tampa. So, continuing to waste money on primaries which have no practical purpose in the delegate strategy was unnecessary. Also, since Paul has not focused on primary states anyway, this announcement changes little, yet could go a long way toward building good will for Tampa.

    It will be interesting to see what the campaign says about the delegate strategy going forward.
    Unfortunately, even if this was less about "selling out" and more about building good will while continuing to move forward, this announcement will drain some enthusiasm, discourage additional Paul converts between now and the convention, and waste a lot of time and energy deciphering the campaigns intentions.

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  6. Do really need some Texas straight talk to straighten it all out.

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  7. I believe Ron Paul is Smart like a FOX and is just focusing the Funds into the right venues that result in More Delegates for Tampa. More than one way to Skin a Cat And the Cats in the WT Hse need Skinning Keep the Faith , Keep on Trucking We Shall Overcome http://betterandbetterinfo.biz/

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  8. RP is again showing that his campaign and movement are not about one man but about ideas about liberty. The grassroots must learn not to depend on him per se but on his ideas.

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  9. It's easy to become disillusioned when you put your faith in the fallacy of "external authority".

    See:

    A Way To Be Free - by Robert LeFevre
    http://centerforselfrule.org

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  10. Don't panic. It's a well-thought out move that maximizes his advantage over Romney in terms of how informed his supporters are. For the average state convention delegate, it costs $30 bucks for the entry fee, $50 to get to whatever city it's being held in, and $200 for two nights in a hotel. If you're a Romney supporter, since the only media you generally seek out (cable news, major newspapers, AM radio) is a joke, you think your guy has it all buttoned up, so do you still spend that money? Some probably won't. On the other hand, RP's delegates all know how to use the internet (otherwise they wouldn't have ever become Paul supporters), and they know it's still game on. They'll all be there for the six state conventions that are being held this weekend. Advantage: Ron Paul.

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    1. So are you saying Paul's plan is to lull Romney's team into reducing its spending on primary ad media? That could reduce the "spending gap" and hopefully have fewer Romney supporters even show up to vote. All the while Paul continues to run his campaign the same low cost internet way.

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  11. I am beginning to wonder if people bother to actually read anymore, and to think about what they are reading before they react. When I first saw Dr. Paul's announcement yesterday I read it through and realized almost immediately what was going on. It was perfectly consistent with what he has been doing all along.

    The campaign has never been about winning meaningless "beauty contests" but about transforming the GOP back into the party of small government and Liberty. Nothing about that has changed.

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    1. Yes, it was exactly what was already going on.

      So why the FUCK would you write a statement about it????

      When you read, you have to read content AND context. Sometimes what's between the lines is more important than the lines themselves. The supporters realize something is up. It's not clear exactly what, and what's up may even be good in the long run, but people are reasonably anxious about, effectively, pissing all their hard work away.

      Benton's followup "explanation" that points to the lack of decorum at the raucous conventions didn't help. People are worried about being regulated, taxed, and having their money debased into nonexistence. On top of that, it is now "legal" for the military to snatch you out of your bed in the middle of the night or assassinate you from an overhead drone if the president approves it. Neocons getting their feelings hurt at state conventions pales in comparison to the bigger picture. While it would be better if things could be more polite, the establishment has made it clear they have no problems fighting for their turf. Words and peaceful actions (and I consider yelling and crowd chanting to be peaceful actions) trump violence any day -- even if it's uncomfortable to confront the establishment directly.

      I think what a lot of us hope is that this move was to cause the establishment to lose interest while the R3voLution keeps taking over conventions. If so, the anxiety is just the price that has to be paid for the strategic move. We'll see over the next few weeks.

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  12. Also, it shouldnt be forgotten that Paul's campaign had sort of morphed into one big college speaking tour. Now that the semesters are winding down he probably doesnt see much point to keep traveling around... And they may need money for legal fees down the road.

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  13. I almost guarantee the campaign didn't sell out. What they did is take the 'long road'. They knew that if they caused a rucus at this year's convention that getting Rand through the nomination process in 2016 after Obama beats Romney in 2012, would be almost impossible.

    As it sits now, the groundwork has been laid. The runway is open, and the giant, new, and shiny Rand Paul is coming in for a landing. No sense in pissing people off and digging potholes in the runway.

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    1. To hell with Rand. I would never vote for him.

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  14. The events at the State conventions in Alaska, Nevada, Maine and most recently Oklahoma have been getting noticed, and that is causing a reaction by the establishment. Dr. Paul’s announcement seems to suggest he has given up, when in fact if you read it carefully it’s clear he’s still perusing the main strategy of acquiring delegates to the national convention. This should create complacency among the GOP establishment, reduce voter turnout and possibly cause apathetic turnout at the remaining state conventions. The exception will be the Paul supporters who will remain energized. There is still enough time between now and the remaining State conventions to get the word out to our supporters and recover any lost enthusiasm Monday’s announcement has caused.
    We also know there is a stealth campaign among Santorum supporters to acquire national delegates and try to get Santorum the nomination following a very similar strategy as Ron Paul. We will be careful about alliances with Santorum supporters by assuming they think they’ll be able to turn Paul delegates at the National Convention. If we must, we xcan form an alliance to get a majority of the National Delegates for Dr. Paul. Texas and California are the biggest delegations and are among the States remaining to hold their conventions. Victory for Dr. Paul is not only possible, but it is probable.

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    1. This is all subjective and very much wishful thinking. For one it's not really the Doc's style to say one thing and then do another, for two for what end? What's the payoff to go to convention with AT MOST 600 delegates, and I'm being VERY liberal in assuming that he'll get that many, is there any? I guess the campaign's response would be to change the platform and influence the rules for the next time around but so what? To change a platform that can just be ignored or to attempt to change the rules to favor us in the next go around? As if we would actually have enough of a presence to make that happen or as if the establishment would just let us do it with knowing those were our intentions. Plus, the campaign has virtually conceded the election to Romney, just read the email that was sent out today. In it, it states:"What happens in each one (state conventions) could have MASSIVE ramifications for years to come." Years to come, not months or this election but YEARS. I'm interested to see how this all plays out, but I don't think it'll end up with a huge victory or even presence at the convention.

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  15. It seems to me that this is getting blown out of proportion. All that the press release says is that RP will not be wasting money in trying to win straw-polls the results of which further efforts are not likely to change. In addition it does say that they will continue the work on the ground; in which respect the press release is somewhat unnecessary: so why put it out?

    My gut feeling is that it was a recommendation of the RP campaign managers/advisers. According to National Journal, there are three top managers, Jesse Benton, Doug Wead, and one more (I don't know the name). I find this NJ article quite telling (http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/paul-clan-has-dynastic-ambitions-20120510), as it casts a particularly unfavorable light on the Pauls--not to mention that it insinuates personal characteristics with Dr. Paul that have never been exhibited. The main source in the story is one of the three managers, who chooses to remain anonymous. Bellow are a few excerpts from the NJ article:

    '“If [Ron] hadn’t stayed in through the last few weeks, he would not have made those trips to the donors on the West Coast, in California,” said the adviser. “That’s 30 percent of his campaign’s income that will help build his movement for years to come. Yes, Ron is 76 years old, but he has a son.”
    ...
    “That famous question, when [Paul] was asked whether he could see himself in the White House, that wasn’t humility” he said, referring to Paul’s “not really” reply to the question. “He’s a smart guy. He knew from the beginning that he wouldn’t win it.”
    ...
    Rand Paul was elected to the Senate in 2010 after beating an establishment Republican candidate in the primary in Kentucky. Within months of taking office, the younger Paul had helped found the Senate Tea Party Caucus, tying his own knots to the small-government, anti-big spending movement with which his father has long identified. Like his father, Rand Paul has a medical degree – he is an ophthalmologist – but has had a lifelong interest in politics.'

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  16. The memo from Jesse Benton this morning doesn't do much to improve things.

    What I got from it:

    1. They in effect concede Romney as the nominee ("less than 200 delegates away from the nod...")

    2. They state that they hope to change the platform via their delegate presence at the convention.

    Yuck.

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    1. I have never quite liked Benton's approach. To me, he does not seem to be a radical supporter of liberty, and is more interested in mundane politics as usual--the rubbing of elbows and the particpation in inner-circles. He has been awful in interviews, and seems to have recommended a suspension in the campaign on several occasions where such a recommendation seemed premature at best.

      Perhaps Benton is thinking about his career.

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    2. If so, this doesn't say much about RP, or does it?

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  17. But wait. Is he out? Nope! Some historical perspective for Ron Paul activists Posted by Ryan W. McMaken on May 15, 2012 12:47 AM

    "I've been somewhat surprised by the absolutely hysterical reaction among some RP activists to Ron Paul's announcement that he's shifting resources toward winning more delegates instead of blowing it on straw polls in new primaries. In some of the forums, alleged "supporters" are hurling insults at both Ron and his staffers.

    I remember how after 2008, some people I talked to pledged to "never give money ever again" to Ron Paul because he "wasn't serious" about winning. These people think elections are all that matter, but that's not how political and intellectual movements work. The election of numerous libertarian candidates will be a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, of the success of a libertarian movement. The population still isn't there. Although it will be..."

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/112112.html

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  18. Something is definitely strange here. Why make this announcement, since they were basically already doing this anyway?

    I don't believe Ron Paul himself would endorse Romney or support him, but his campaign staff sure seem suspect. It reminds me of a Tom Woods comment a few months ago saying that the campaign would never allow him to have access to Paul or pass on talking points for debates or other information to him that would have greatly helped him.

    I can believe Paul will refuse to endorse romney, but what kind of crooked deal will his staff have? I don't feel good about this one bit. Especially when it comes right after state after state is reporting Paul winning the delegate battles!

    I definitely think Romney and the GOP were extremely nervous of the Paul victories and being denied the chance to clinch the nomination without it going to the convention floor. Then Paul makes this announcement? Please, Wenzel, use your sources and look into this. Something is not right. If Paul makes some sort of deal with Romney for a few planks in the GOP platform which they never pay attention to anyway the entire movement will implode.

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  19. Anon@2:28AM,

    You are in error. Any implosion of the movement is not contigent on RP or his staff.

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    1. Is it? How will the non GOP typeswho view Romney as the same as Obama take a Paul endorsement of Romney when they have nothing in common? What a disaster to do this after winning states via delegates?

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    2. I was agreeing with that point that an implosion is not dependent on RP or his staff, it could be caused by putting too much stock in one person/campaign in hopes of taking it all and not seeing the reality of the situation. The fact is that it is a long term goal to advance liberty, and we shouldn't expect this campaign to be the end of that goal.

      I also don't believe that Dr. Paul will in the end endorse Romney, maybe Rand, but not the Doc.

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    3. I wish that was the case, but I am not so sure. The whole movement has been based upon the ideas Paul espouses, but one of the main themes is not "taking one for the team" Santorum and every other Republican style by making deals with other crooked Republicans. If Paul endorses Romney and it doesn't involve Judge Napolitano being on the Supreme Court, then it is a major, major defeat both literally and psychologically. Paul is famous for voting against the GOP and all of the new spending and new programs every time because he does not compromise or make deals, which is what has inspired this movement.

      I really hope the people in Paul's campaign pressing Paul to make a deal with Romney don't manage to convince Dr No of this. Even if Paul doesn't compromise, something is definitely up with his idiot grandson in law Jesse Benton and possibly Doug Wead, who I suspect may be the other snake in the grass.

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    4. I just heard Rand tell Tom Woods he will support the GOP nominee no matter what, so that means he is endorsing Romney. That isn't exactly a great sign.

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  20. ok, one more comment...

    There are two issues here.
    #1 - Campaign is running low and ads are expensive in remaining states.
    #2 - STOOOPID press release which gives the clear impression that the campaign is folding.

    My take:
    If money is low, just STOP SPENDING IT! Don't make any announcement. WHY advertise your weakness? WHY give the impression you're folding???
    Somebody bought off Benton. He'll have a nice future as a GOP hack.

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  21. Jesse Benton is married to Ron Paul's grandaughter.

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