Friday, July 10, 2009

The Trend Followers Don't Get That the Trend is Changing

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose sharply, strongly suggesting that an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight, according to their data. This is really yesterday's news. ECRI is among the best in identifying a trend shift fairly early, but they will still do so much later than those who operate with a business cycle theory that requires watching money supply growth or the lack of it.

ECRI hasn't yet picked up the crisis that will develop as a result of the Fed's recent change in money stance to a slow money growth policy. They will be among the first, but it's probably weeks away.

htJack Krupansky

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