Saturday, August 15, 2009

Most Economists Say the Recession Is Over...

Proving once again that most economists are simply trend followers, with no understanding at all of business cycle theory.

The current uptick in certain data is something that should have been expected by economists back in the first quarter of the year (When most economists were still vey bearish.). Federal Reserve money printing was flooding the economy which would manipulate the economic data into a distorted "recovery".

Back in February, I wrote:
3 month annualized M2 nsa money growth continues at an incredibly rapid rate. Through the week of February 16, the growth was 14.7%. Thus, I fully expect a "recovery" in the economy to occur much sooner than most expect. I hasten to add that, although traditional economic data will turn positive, because the "recovery" is fueled by money printing, it will distort the structure of the economy and set the stage for further crisis down the road, including the possibility of near runaway inflation.
Now that the trend following economists have detected the uptick data , like a school of fish, they have suddenly turned in the opposite direction and turned positive on the economy. WSJ reports:
... the majority of the economists The Wall Street Journal surveyed during the past few days said the recession that began in December 2007 is now over...After months of uncertainty, economists are finally seeing a break in the clouds. Forecasts were revised upward for every period, with 27 economists saying the recession had ended and 11 seeing a trough this month or next.
Of course, they have turned positive on the economy just as the second downward leg in a double dip downward move in the economy is about to impact as a result of Bernanke's most recent move: money tightening.

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