Sunday, November 8, 2009

Mainstream Economists Focus on a Defect of Extreme Aggregation

There are a lot of problems with extreme aggregation of economic data. It ultimately results in draining out the true ebb and flows of the economy. One such aggregation has become so obviously in error that even mainstream economists are bringing it up at conferences. NYT's Louis Uchitelle explains below. Read this and please learn to take all mass aggregation data with a grain of salt.:

A widening gap between data and reality is distorting the government’s picture of the country’s economic health, overstating growth and productivity in ways that could affect the political debate on issues like trade, wages and job creation.

The shortcomings of the data-gathering system came through loud and clear here Friday and Saturday at a first-of-its-kind gathering of economists from academia and government determined to come up with a more accurate statistical picture.

The fundamental shortcoming is in the way imports are accounted for. A carburetor bought for $50 in China as a component of an American-made car, for example, more often than not shows up in the statistics as if it were the American-made version valued at, say, $100. The failure to distinguish adequately between what is made in America and what is made abroad falsely inflates the gross domestic product, which sums up all value added within the country.

American workers lose their jobs when carburetors they once made are imported instead. The federal data notices the decline in employment but fails to revalue the carburetors or even pinpoint that they are foreign-made. Because it seems as if $100 carburetors are being produced but fewer workers are needed to do so, productivity falsely rises — in the national statistics.

Read the full article here.

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