Sunday, November 1, 2009

Number to Watch: Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.81 in September, down from –0.65 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in September.

The production and income category made a positive contribution for the third consecutive month, but this was mostly auto and Goldman Sachs bailout nonsense.

Thirty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in September, while 53 made negative contributions. Thirty-nine indicators improved from August to September,while 46 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.

Bottom line: This economy is going nowhere fast. The second leg of the double-dip is upon us.

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