Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Update: Details on ADP Jobs Numbers

Nonfarm private employment decreased 203,000 from September to October 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

The estimated change of employment from August to September was revised by 27,000, from a decline of 254,000 to a decline of 227,000. October was the seventh consecutive month during which the decline in employment was less than in the previous month.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 53,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 75,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 75,000.

Employment losses among small-size businesses were the smallest since July of 2008.

In October, construction employment dropped 51,000. This was its thirty-third consecutive
monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007
to 1,675,000. Employment in the financial services sector dropped 18,000, the twenty-third
consecutive monthly decline.

There's really not much new in these numbers. The declines continue at the same key hot spots as the past, construction and financial services. These numbers can't decline forever as at some point you could, theoretically, hit absolute zero in these sectors where everyone is laid off. Obviously, that's not going to happen. There is some base number employed in these sectors even in a very sluggish economy, but the support to these sectors will continue to get pounded as will the auto industry, now that cash 4 clunkers is over.

But the erratic Bernanke monetary policy, from annualized 15% money supply (M2nsa)growth between Sept. 08 and Feb 09 to the zero money growth policy, will make it difficult for businessmen to make decisions and understand market trends. This will mean much slower hiring of the unemployed than would otherwise take place.

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