In a private email Janet notes:
The coming weeks may bring more public questions about the AIG CDS settlements.
Calyon, a French bank that bought protection from A.I.G. (including on some Goldman originated CDOs) settled a similar $1.875 billion financial guarantee with FGIC UK for only ten cents on the dollar. This wasn’t exactly comparable, because of the March 2008 lawsuit, but it was on a subprime related ABS portfolio. It does highlight that French banks will settle, however, when the motivation is right.
These are much more comparable: Ambac settled $5 billion of similar (to AIGs) CDSs for ten cents on the dollar, and MBIA has also made deeply discounted settlements on similar CDSs.
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