Friday, December 4, 2009

Paging Conspiracy Theorists: Divergence in BLS Employment Numbers and ADP Numbers

There's a curious divergence between the BLS employment numbers released today and the numbers released by ADP yesterday. It should be noted.

Joshua Shapiro at MFR Inc. has the best take on the unemployed seen on the grassy knoll:
This was a shocking report because the reported payroll data bear little resemblance to any other evidence concerning the labor market, including the ADP survey which is based on hard data from a much wider sample of payrolls than is the government’s survey. Other evidence pointing to considerably weaker conditions are continued anemic readings on consumer confidence and sentiment (including specific questions concerning the labor market), employment sub-indices in ISM and other surveys, etc. Still, this is the “official” picture, and until reported otherwise by the government, these are the numbers in the books, as questionable as they may be.

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