Axel Weber Has the Inside Position to Become the Next ECB President

So says WSJ's Brian Blackstone:

The nomination of Portuguese central banker Vitor Constancio to be the next European Central Bank vice president in May has made the top ECB job, which opens in October 2011, German Bundesbank chief Axel Weber’s to lose, ECB watchers say.

Constancio, 66, brings an extensive political resume that Weber–whose background before joining Bundesbank was almost entirely academic–lacks. Constancio had budget posts in the 1970s and was a member of parliament in the 1970s and twice in the 1980s. He has headed the Bank of Portugal since 2000, and did a stint in the post in the mid-1980s as well.
Though there’s no official quota system for doling out top ECB and EU posts, there’s long been thought to be a preference for north-south, big-small balance. That bodes well for Weber, since Portugal’s a small country from the south it would tend to favor a large country from the north, like Germany.

another factor, ECB watchers say: Constancio is thought to be among the most dovish of ECB members (meaning he’s more likely to worry about growth than inflation), in contrast to the hawkish Weber.

In addition to Germany, France also appears to be a supporter of a Weber ECB presidency. While not an Austrian economist by any definition, he certainly understands that what happens to the money supply is important and that inflation is not a concern that can be ignored. Given the real economik possibilities, Weber would not be bad choice.