Thursday, March 4, 2010

Finance Execs Double Dip Ahead; Roubini Double Dip Ahead

A growing expectation of a double-dip recession is evident in a new poll of financial executives. Conducted quarterly by Mountain View, Calif.-based Adaptive Planning and Palo Alto-based Business Performance Management Forum, the poll found more than half of financial executives predicting another downturn, and most expecting jobs recovery to lag into 2011. Specifically, the Q1 2010 Business Volatility and Variables Survey revealed that 51% predict a “W-shaped” recovery, up from 46% a quarter ago.

Moreover, 72% expect that a recovery will not occur until the second half of 2010 or later and 67% expect that a meaningful improvement in jobs will not occur until 2011 or beyond.

From Roubini Global Economics:
As the debate of the shape of the recovery in the United States rages on, Nouriel Roubini analyzes the macro data and finds it to be fully consistent with – at best – a U-shaped recovery. However, the last two weeks of poor economic data suggest that the probability of a W, a double-dip recession, is rising.


  1. The Roubini theory of forecasting: Keep repeating the forecast until something remotely similar happens and then take credit.

    Who in their right mind would actually base their financial plan on the musings of these prognosticators of the vague and useless?

  2. Hey Wenzel, the comedian Harry Sherer has joined your double-dip brigade. He made the comment on the ED Show on MSNBC the other day.

    Are you sure about your analysis?