Friday, April 23, 2010

While Greek Debt Stabilized on News Of Greece Seeking EU/IMF Aid...

...the five year Portuguese yields rose from 3.84% to 4.26%.  The five year Spanish bonds rose from 2.89% to 3.03%, and the five year Irish bonds rose from 3.74% to 3.97%.

Here's the problem as explained by Peter Boone and Simon Johnson:

When the problem was just Greece, the numbers were already large.  In our view, the Greek government needs 150bn euros over three years to be sure it can refinance itself through a recession.  The Portuguese will roughly need 100bn euros.  If those amounts were made available – will that support the confidence needed to buy Irish and Spanish bonds, or would it scare investors because the protests from Germany would be so large that it would be clear no more funds would be available in bailout mechanisms? 
Beyond this is the reality that none of the governments in these countries are going to do anything to cut spending. The political climate is just not there to do so. This means any money sent to these countries is simply a patch job. The spending won't stop and so the crises will re-emerge.

1 comment:

  1. This sounds like bop-a-mole. Bop one mole and the others pop up. The problem is, how long will this go on? Will the recession really be over in 3 years?