Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Is Housing about to Turn into a New Bull Market?

Based on Ben Bernanke money printing, I think the 2011 housing market will be much stronger than most expect. Here's the take from a major Orange County, California homebuilder, who isn't looking at the picture from a macro economic perspective, but from a within the industry perspective, during an interview with the Orange County Register:
Dan Young, president of Irvine Co.’s Irvine Community Development Co. homebuilding business.

Us: What’s your Orange County outlook for 2011

 Dan: 2011 will be significantly better than 2010 was, and 2010 has been very good for us.

Us: What will be the 2011 drivers of real estate change for condos, good or bad? Why?

Dan: Slow but steady job growth, the beginning of the final clearing of the distressed housing market and the public’s recognition of a housing shortage due to a dearth of new home building the last four years. Other drivers include continued low interest rates, very attractive new home pricing and new home design.

Us: OK. We love numbers. How much — in percentage points — will the median selling price of an Orange County home change in the coming year. What’s one thing that might alter that prediction — up or down?

Dan: Really do not have a prediction numbers-wise, but because resales have been strong and the distressed housing inventory has about cleared the market, we expect the median selling price to rise, and rise significantly if the public comes to realize that there is a looming housing shortage because new home development has not kept pace with population growth.

Us: What’s your top worry about the real estate climate for 2011? Why?

Dan: Banks getting back to lending to small businesses, financial issues both at home and abroad and jobs, jobs, jobs.

Us: What will be the real estate surprise we’ll be talking about a year from now? Why?

Dan: The full emergence of the Gen Y buyer, who currently makes up 85% of our new home buyers. The other surprise is that boomers will get back onto the playing field and begin looking for homes again.
Remember, this guy is in the industry, so he isn't about to say things are going to get worse, but his point about Gen Y buyers is interesting, as is his comment on new home designs.

But, bottom line, it will all come down to Bennie and his helicopters.

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