Friday, May 6, 2011

CEA Chief Goolsbee Is Good at Math

CNBC thumbs:
CEA Chief Goolsbee tells #CNBC Unemployment rate should continue to fall if job creation continues at current pace.
That, my friends, is a mathematical certainty, slickly wrapped as a forecast.


  1. The sun should rise tomorrow if the earth continues rotating at its current pace.

  2. And what do they mean by "continue" to fall? Did not the unemployment rate rise?

  3. Amazing!! My 6 year old could have told me that.

  4. Not so, Wenzel. He is implicitly predicting that half the retired people don't start looking for work, and that the government won't abolish laws against child labor. This is a totally falsifiable claim. Popper is smiling.

  5. @Murphy

    I knew all those years studying econometrics at NYU would eventually cause you to crack. Don't worry though, I think we can find you some government work.

  6. So here's what I don't understand:

    If people like this can figure out a causal relationship like "more jobs means less unemployment," how can they not also figure out a similar causal relationship like "more dollars means less demand for dollars"?