Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Keynesian Econometricians Way Off on Durable Goods Forecasts

Durable goods orders surged 4 percent in June, the Commerce Department reported.

Keynesian economists polled by Reuters had expected orders to rise just 2 percent. The Keynesians, who work on a faulty model of the economy, generally make forecasts off of other recent incoming data, and fail to understand monetary factors that may result in turning points in the economy that can cause data shifts.

Money supply is currently surging, only a Keynesian, who isn't monitoring money growth or fails to understand its importance in influencing the economy, would be surprised by the current growth in durable growth numbers.

Real mathematicians laugh at econometricians.

5 comments:

  1. We all collectively need to place stones in our washers and dryers so to break them...This will boost Durable Goods orders and force economic recovery.

    -Paul Krugman

    ReplyDelete
  2. I like to look at the BDI as a leading indicator...it performed well in the summer/fall of 2008.

    Baltic Dry Index has started rocketing up this last 7 days...

    http://www.eoddata.com/stockquote/INDEX/BDI.htm

    it is possible that M2 is finally flowing through.

    ReplyDelete
  3. A bigger stimulus is needed since the earthquake did so little damage...Everyone must now crash their cars into brick walls at high speed...The auto and medical industry will lead us back to economic prosperity.

    -Paul Krugman

    ReplyDelete
  4. "If we increment all the little people's bank accounts by $5000 then we will have a recovery in beer production and strippers buying Ford Mustangs"

    ReplyDelete
  5. thanks for applying sound economic theory to real world events/numbers. These are my favorite type of posts. Keep 'em coming!

    ReplyDelete