Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Keynesians Undershoot Another Jobs Number

According to the latest release by ADP, the private sector added 110,000 jobs in October. Keynesian consensus expectations was for a gain of only 100,000 jobs.

Bottom line: Keynesian econometric trend followers, with their failure to understand business cycle theory, continue to undershoot business activity.

Specifically,  the service sector added 114,000 jobs for the month., while the goods-producing sector fell 4,000 and manufacturing lost 8,000 positions.

Small businesses added 58,000 jobs, medium-size business added 53,000 jobs, and large businesses netted out a decline of 1,000 jobs. according to the report.


  1. Isn't a difference of 10,000 jobs a close modest estimate?

  2. Yeah, I think that in this case you're a bit too harsh on the fortunetel...I mean econometricians as they got it (by sheer luck obviously) pretty close.

  3. It's 10% off. 10,000 would be statistically insignificant if it was 1,000,000 jobs. I thought the same thing until I remembered to put everything in percentages...

  4. Look at the type of jobs though.

    Not encouraging in the least.

  5. I'm not sure I follow. What is wrong with the jobs that were created?

  6. I think Anon @ 11:58 is suggesting that the service jobs created are not as productive as the manufacturing jobs(that were lost on top of it).

    It's just a guess though. I tend to agree with him, but purely in an axiomatic way.