Bottom line: Keynesian econometric trend followers, with their failure to understand business cycle theory, continue to undershoot business activity.
Specifically, the service sector added 114,000 jobs for the month., while the goods-producing sector fell 4,000 and manufacturing lost 8,000 positions.
Small businesses added 58,000 jobs, medium-size business added 53,000 jobs, and large businesses netted out a decline of 1,000 jobs. according to the report.
Isn't a difference of 10,000 jobs a close modest estimate?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think that in this case you're a bit too harsh on the fortunetel...I mean econometricians as they got it (by sheer luck obviously) pretty close.
ReplyDeleteIt's 10% off. 10,000 would be statistically insignificant if it was 1,000,000 jobs. I thought the same thing until I remembered to put everything in percentages...
ReplyDeleteLook at the type of jobs though.
ReplyDeleteNot encouraging in the least.
I'm not sure I follow. What is wrong with the jobs that were created?
ReplyDeleteI think Anon @ 11:58 is suggesting that the service jobs created are not as productive as the manufacturing jobs(that were lost on top of it).
ReplyDeleteIt's just a guess though. I tend to agree with him, but purely in an axiomatic way.