Brent Budowsky is doing some
serious thinking about the Republican race and isn't expecting much from Herman Cain or Rick Perry:
Wouldn't you rather I write about Ron Paul than about Herman Cain, who will soon flame out, or Rick Perry, who has already flamed out? The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll suggests Ron Paul would win 18 percent as a third-party candidate running against Obama and Romney!
Now here is where Budowsky's thinking gets interesting. He thinks Ron Paul is going to be a force at next year's Republican convention:
The other underestimated factor in the Republican race is that proportional representation will give Ron Paul potentially major influence in choosing the nominee at the convention, and major leverage because he certainly would be a powerful third-party candidate if he does run.
But, Budowsky isn't done yet. Check out these scenarios that Budowsky considers:
Ron Paul has been the constant of the 2012 campaign. If he entered a general election as a third-party candidate against Romney and Obama with 18 percent, that number might well rise after presidential debates between the three of them.
There is another scenario. Mitt Romney is obviously having big trouble rising above 25 to 30 percent of Republican support. If Perry and Cain both drop out early in 2012, as I predict, Ron Paul's numbers would rise for the Republican battle.
Could Ron Paul win a direct two-candidate contest of Paul v. Romney? I would like to see a poll about that race.
In other words, for Ron Paul supporters, the best is yet to come.
If Paul does take the third party route, the LP should reach out to him ASAP. Granted most Libertarians like myself have gotten disillusioned with the party since neocon Root has become somewhat of a defacto spokesman.
ReplyDeleteI would love to see a debate between Paul & Romney.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling the establishment would hate such a scenario...Perry has flamed out, but it seems like the press is having a hard time letting go of Cain. After all, who's left for them to get behind.
No reason to think third party. I believe this Republican nomination is possible.
If Ron Paul runs as a non-Republican it should be as an "independent" since the "Libertarian Party" is a contradiction.
ReplyDeleteWhy would the LP even field a candidate? Just put RP on their primary ballot and throw in with the GOP...?
ReplyDeleteThe only real advantage of going LP would be the savings on ballot access. It wasn't that difficult for me to re-register Republican 4 years ago even though I'd been a registered Lib since 1988 (Ron Paul's first run). The LP has completely lost its way with neocon influence.
ReplyDeleteAnd, quite ironically, I place a lot of the blame on Jacob Hornberger's attacks on Harry Browne. I don't think that was Hornberger's intent, but the damage he did with (what I believe were) unfounded accusations was immense. The infighting that event caused pretty much destroyed the Libertarian Party and allowed the neocon influence to flourish. It was a very dark chapter of LP history. I want to forgive Hornberger, but I have still have trouble doing so.
Anon 3:43,
ReplyDeleteI feel you there. I left the LP about 2 years ago and they still keep calling me every week. Last week I decided that I was going to answer and discuss some issues. They asked me why I left, I told them that I am hesitant to associate myself with certain groups and if I am not entirely familiar with their platform. My first question: Who is your Presidential candidate? "Um, I have a list (blah, blah, can you hand me the list of candidates), just a moment Joseph". Next I asked if they were familiar with Murray Rothbard (AKA Mr. Libertarian)? "nope, never heard of him". How about Ludwig von Mises? "nope, never heard of him". How about Hayek? "oh yes". What is your position on the Federal Reserve? "well, we feel that with the reforms blah, blah, blah". What are your solutions to reduce government spending? "we have fantastic ideas for tax reform blah, blah, blah".
They then went into full sales mode and asked if I would be willing to give up $25 to be a "sustaining member". My question, what do I get in return? "you get to be secure in the fact that you're supporting the Party of freedom, blah, blah, blah". When I asked about the Koch's they had no opinion and were rather hesitant to answer any questions in that regard.
The LP is nothing more than the same old party BS that you get from both the Rs and the Ds. They did acknowledge Ron Paul's momentum and tried again to get me to spend $25 to be a sustaining member even though RP is running for the Republican primary. If Ron Paul doesn't get the Republican nomination, then I would certainly hope that he doesn't run on a 3rd ticket with the LP. I would rather see him run as an independent if it comes to that. But, considering the fact that his candidate donation base is so widespread and he come in 1st or 2nd in straw polls, I will support him for the Republican nomination.
TV polls don't mean a thing to me...