Monday, December 19, 2011

BIG: Public Policy Polling has Ron Paul in First Place in Iowa

Public Policy Polling, which I consider the best polling organization in the country, now shows Ron Paul in first place:
Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and
2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47).
Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or
independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40.One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul.
Full poll results here.



  1. Electronic voting machines scare the pants off me. And from what i understand, they will be used in Iowa

  2. Ron Paul & Mitt Romney are neck and neck in Iowa according to Betfair:

    Ron Paul 42% chance
    Mitt Romney 40% chance
    Newt Gingrich 15% chance

  3. Perhaps I am being too optimistic but I hope/think Paul will do even better election night. It is much easier to say on the phone that you will vote for someone that you are lukewarm about than actually spending the time and effort to do so. I am counting on most Paul backers to more motivated.

  4. Ron Paul 2012! I hope the Neocons on Fox and Talk Radio wont be able to ruin this.

  5. I thought fraud in a caucus state is much more difficult than in a primary state?