Romney on His Campaign Advisers (Non-Lobbyists,of Course)

Ahem, It Turns Out There Was a Computer "Glitch" in Iowa

Here's an interesting report from National Journal and the real-time coverage from CNN at that point. It doesn't in itself prove chicanery, perhaps the opposite. But, here is what is known for the record, though perhaps a little more about this computer "glitch" and how extensive it was needs to be researched and how many other precinct numbers were just "called in" because of the "glitch".

As Iowa caucus watchers entered the wee hours, waiting to see whether Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney would win, the woman with the answers was fast asleep. Edith Pfeffer, the Republican chairwoman in Clinton County, held the crucial votes from the 2nd Ward's second precinct that would ultimately determine the winner.

But at 1:30 a.m., Pfeffer had retired to sleep in a room without a phone. She couldn’t hear the calls from the Romney campaign, CNN, or her friend Carolyn Tallett, who soon came to ring her doorbell and pound on her windows. 

Pfeffer said she reported the numbers at 11:20 p.m. to a Romney worker in Clinton County, who told her that there had been a computer glitch in getting the numbers to Des Moines. But the state party headquarters needed a second confirmation--after Pfeffer had gone to bed.

“You cringe a little bit,” Pfeffer told NPR in speaking of how she awoke. “And the next thing I knew, someone was pounding on the windows and I thought, ‘What is going on?’ And I got up to see Carolyn running in my front yard.” 

Pfeffer and Tallett then called state party headquarters to confirm the precinct’s votes and spoke by phone to CNN's John King as he tallied the votes live. King told the two women that their numbers did not match what the state was reporting, an indication that they held the missing piece that ultimately determined Romney the winner.
Watch Pfeffer's and Tallett's call with CNN:

It may have just been a glitch, since Ron Paul observers were supposedly posted at all precincts, but that's 1774 precincts. Still interesting.

As Expected, David Gregory of 'Meet the Press' Calls It a Two Person Race

Between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. This despite the fact that the Santorum "surge" occurred before anyone has had a chance to take a look at him. Friends who know Santorum tell me that once the stories come out on this guy, he will flame out. He will get the evangelical vote, but that will be all.

Here's Gregory. He is forced to mention Ron Paul in the start of the clip, but then throws him down the memory hole and calls it a Romney-Santorum race.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Meet Mitt "The Flipper" Romney and The Original

Public Policy Polling: Ron Paul in the Lead

The first post-Christmas poll is out and it was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a group I consider the most accurate pollsters in the country. PPP writes:

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits....

Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls. His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul. There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week.

Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He's also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%. Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he's someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week.

One thing that's hurt Santorum's ability to really make a move is that the Evangelical vote is incredibly fragmented with 6 different candidates getting between 12 and 21%. Paul actually leads the way with that group at 21% to 16% for Romney and Bachmann, 15% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Perry....

Iowa looks like a 2 person race between Paul and Romney as the campaign enters its final week. If Paul can really change the electorate by turning out all these young people and independents who don't usually vote in Republican caucuses, he'll win. If turnout ends up looking a little bit more traditional, Romney will probably prevail.

The full PPP results are here.

It's Okay for Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman to Prepare for Disaster, But Not Ron Paul

So says, Modeled Behavior's Adam Ozimek.

It should be noted that when Ozimek discusses Ron Paul's "crazy beliefs about the probability of economic collapse." He is talking about Ron Paul's investments in gold stocks and gold itself. Yet, Ozimek, along with others who have brought up the topic, never, ever mention that Dr. Paul's portfolio has skyrocketed because of his investment in gold and gold related stocks. And that he is likely the most successful investor in the history of Congress.

But somehow this is not okay, according to Ozimek, but Romney and Huntsman have the green light to stockpile two years worth of dried food:

If Romney and Huntsman are actually prepping, what does it tell them about them? Should this be considered a “crazy belief” of theirs as Paul’s prepping is for him? I don’t think so. Their preparations don’t tell us much about how probable they actually think a disaster is, but rather reflect them adhering to a tradition.

Though Ozimek then contradicts himself and  appears to think that if Romney and Huntsman are storing food it is crazy, but it still is okay, becasue, and this is crazy, if others hold the same crazy idea, it is okay.

And at the very least religious beliefs are so widespread that I don’t think they all have the same correlation with other crazy beliefs as, say, believing an society destroying economic collapse is coming soon.

Screw analysis, screw theoretical understanding of the economy, according to Ozimek, it's all about how many others agree with your crazy idea.

Crazy man, crazy.

Virginia Primary To Be Romney Vs. Ron Paul

The Virginia Republican primary race is now a two-man competition between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, after all other GOP hopefuls failed to meet requirements to get on the state ballot.

“After verification, RPV has determined that Newt Gingrich did not submit required 10k signatures and has not qualified for the VA primary,” ABC News quotes the Republican Party of Virginia as posting on his Twitter account on Saturday morning.

The Virginia Primary is on Super Tuesday, March 6.

Super Tuesday states include:
Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

(ViaLewRockwell'sPoliticalTheatre)

BIG: Public Policy Polling has Ron Paul in First Place in Iowa

Public Policy Polling, which I consider the best polling organization in the country, now shows Ron Paul in first place:

Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and
2% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47).
Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.

Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or
independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Romney's vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40.One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they're not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul.

Full poll results here.

(htJM)

Newt Crashing: It's Down to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in Iowa

Here's the latest tweet from the very accurate polling firm Public Policy Polling:

The Sunday interviews are going to determine our leader in Iowa...very close between Romney and Paul. Newt likely down to 3rd.

(htJM)

Rand Paul Warns Voters about Gingrich and Romney

In a letter to the Des Moines Register, Senator Rand Paul details why Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are not conservatives.

Rand says of Romney:

He's moderate, northeastern, don’t-rock-the-boat Republican, and I think everyone in the party clearly understands that.

As for Gingrich, Rand says:

...what worries me is that the voters are being sold a bill of goods in Gingrich.

Gingrich began his career as a Rockefeller Republican from the liberal wing of the party. And though he has often spoken and occasionally acted like he left that wing, it is clear from his flip-flops and multiple “apologies” that his heart is still there...Gingrich is not from the tea party. He is not even a conservative.

He is part of the Washington establishment I was sent to fight. He has been wrong on many of the major issues of the day, and he has taken money from those who helped cause the housing crisis and create millions of foreclosures.

Senator Paul's full letter is here:

As a U.S. senator elected from and by the tea party, I am often asked about the tea party, the conservative movement and the presidential race.

While conservatives and limited-government activists did, indeed, make great strides in 2010, those could easily be set back by nominating someone with a different set of ideas and values in 2012.

Let me start with something important. I have two goals for 2012:

I want to prevent the European debt crisis from consuming America next.

I want to elect a president who will defend the ideas of constitutional conservatism and limited government.

Unfortunately, while all Republican candidates would be an improvement over the present administration, two of the current frontrunners simply do not represent the tea party, the conservative movement, or the type of change our country desperately needs in 2012.

Let me begin with the most obvious reasons:

Both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich supported the outrageous $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, bailouts — “one of the most unpopular government programs in American history,” even according to President Obama’s own Treasury Department.

Both Romney and Gingrich have been outspoken and unapologetic supporters of the individual mandate. This is the heart and soul of ObamaCare.

Since the tea party started as a reaction to Republicans who voted for TARP, and was strengthened into a national political force during the fight over ObamaCare, I believe this disqualifies both Romney and Gingrich from tea party support.

A Poll that Ron Paul is Losing Badly

A FoxNews poll shows that 40% of voters think of Gingrich as phony, 36% would say the same about Romney.

Romney Heads to Boston to Hit Up Banksters for Cash

A friend in Boston finance emails:

For what it's worth, Mitt Romney is coming to Boston for a few fundraisers early next week. I know this because my firm is hosting one for him. He's also hitting [hedge fund] Baupost, [global consulting firm]Bain and a few other big boys in town. He's the banksters man!

New Poll: Ron Paul Surges Past Romney in Iowa

A new Iowa Poll, just published by the Des Moines Register, reports Ron Paul has surged past one-time front-runner Mitt Romney and moved into second place.

According to the new poll results, Gingrich leads the pack at 25% of likely caucus-goers with less than a month until they're held. Paul is second with 18% and Romney now trails with 16%.

Columnist Andrew Malcolm explains why this could mean Congressman Paul may win in Iowa:

That might seem like a comfortable lead for the former House speaker with only 30 days left. But here's the special deal about Iowa: It's not an all-day drop by and vote anytime from 6 a.m. til 8 p.m. thing.

It starts at 7 p.m. and depends on a candidate's determined supporters being prepared to go out on a cold night and hang in all evening, schmoozing, campaigning, bargaining and voting ballot after ballot after ballot until maybe midnight on a school-work night.

Romney has not been working to win in Iowa, having been spanked into second place there four years ago by Mike Huckabee. Gingrich didn't open his first Hawkeye state campaign office until this week.

However, Paul's people are not just supporters; they are disciples, some even willing to doff their clothes for him, as we wrote here. They will also stand (clothed) for windy hours with signs on Interstate overpasses for their guy.

And all fall while other candidates rocketed up and flamed out, the Paul campaign, his third for the presidency (1988 and 2008), has been seeking volunteers from across the country to travel to Iowa for pre-caucus campaigning.

(htTomWoods)

Crony Healthcare in Action

Obamacare is pretty much modeled after the monstrosity that Mitt Romney designed for Massachusetts. WSJ has a report on how that experiment is going:

High health-care costs are so sensitive in Massachusetts that when two health-care company executives suggested consumers could help by watching their weight, the Boston Herald ran a sarcastic page-one headline: "It's Your Fault, Fatso."

Here's WSJ on how well RomneyCare is reining in costs:

Four years after Massachusetts passed a health-care overhaul similar to the recently enacted national plan, small businesses are seeing their premiums rise 22% this year. People in the state have some of the highest premiums in the nation.

Then it just turns into Crony Healthcare:

In Massachusetts, a few prestigious hospitals enjoy considerable bargaining power. State and federal authorities are looking into allegations that Partners HealthCare System Inc., which operates Massachusetts General Hospital and Brigham and Women's Hospital, engaged in anti-competitive behavior. Insurers generally swallow the high prices and pass them on to people buying coverage.

What's really scary about this madness is the solution that most in Massachusetts seem to be in favor of:

There is fairly broad agreement on how to fix the system. A state commission —including representatives of government, insurers, doctors and hospitals—recommended in July that Massachusetts adopt a "global payment" system. Health professionals would be paid for caring for patients over a certain period of time, rather than compensated for each test or treatment. Implementing the fixes, though, will take years.

Of course, this nutty solution will result in fewer tests and fewer treatments, but it sure sounds like doctors will have incentive to drag things out over longer periods. This will, of course, result in limits on the period allowed for treatments of different illnesses, and heaven help you if treatment for you is required beyond the period designated for your illness.

Then, of course, there is the favorite solution of every politician for climbing prices, price controls:

[Governor] Patrick's answer is to cap insurance-company rate increases at 7.7% this year. Insurers say that is draconian, and have sued to reverse Mr. Patrick's action.

Picture all this madness at the national level because it is coming with Obamacare. It's all about politicians who have no idea how free markets work and police themselves. It's all about politicians who have no idea of the impossibility of replacing the huge number of calculations made by individuals in a free market, by a central planning authority. It's about politicians who don't understand the incentive system. It's about politicians who fail to understand that the creation of power centers (new regulations and agencies) ultimately leads to those who will attempt to influence and capture the thinking in such power centers. It's about cronyism. In healthcare, it will mean crony healthcare--which will mean less care, care directed toward the treatments offered by those who have captured the regulators. It will mean higher prices for less, and ultimately more pain more suffering and earlier deaths for most of us.