Justin Raimondo Predictions for 2012

1) War with Iran – One could argue we are already at war with Iran, what with US support for the terrorist Jundallah – a Sunni extremist group with links to al-Qaeda – which is attacking Iranian civilians and wreaking havoc in Iranian Baluchistan. Also, the sanctions we have imposed on Iran are, in themselves, acts of war – and we’ve seen how Iran is responding with threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, which a great deal of the world’s oil must pass through. The odds of a minor incident in this volatile region blowing up into a major confrontation are quite high. Adding fuel to the fire: continuing US efforts to destabilize Syria, an Iranian ally, could prove to be the tripwire that drags us into war with Tehran. Moves by Hezbollah to shore up the Syrian Ba’athists could bring in Israel – and ultimately the US.

In line with my theory of “libertarian realism” – the idea that domestic political considerations determine a nation’s actions on the international stage – I’ll note that the number one force pushing for war with Iran is the indefatigable Israel lobby, which has been beating the war drums for years now and has the full support of both parties in Congress. Sure, the American people don’t want war – but since when have they had any say in our foreign policy?

Probability: 65%

2) Deteriorating relations with Russia – This isn’t really a prediction, it’s a reality. The recent Russian election brought the downgrading of Russo-American relations to the fore, but the fact is that this has been the case ever since Russian strongman Vladimir Putin rose from the ashes of the Soviet collapse and imposed some semblance of order on a nation in the midst of a meltdown. American antipathy to Russia is largely a matter of habit – after half a century of the cold war, fear of the Russians is embedded in the consciousness of the American elites – but much of it has to do with distrust of any foreign leader who seems too strong for our own good. The Americans thought they could gobble up the pieces of the shattered Soviet empire with little or no trouble, and were surprised when Putin pulled his country out of the trash bin of history and started challenging the American would-be hegemon. While war is not an option, internal subversion most certainly is, and if any enterprising journalist wants to trace the financial links between the US government and the various Russian “dissidents” at the head of the “democratic” opposition, he or she will uncover a thriving industry.

Probability: 99%

3) The “Arab Spring” comes to the Kingdom – The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, that is. We have already seen some of this in the Eastern, predominantly Shi’ite provinces, but the coming rebellion promises to be broader. There is simply no way for the Kingdom to block the influx of democratic-secular ideas flooding into the region, and the regime’s vaunted economic invulnerability is increasingly threatened by the global downturn. The emirates and sheikdoms of the Gulf have already been hit with protests, and what is happening in Bahrain may provide, in miniature, a look into the Kingdom’s future.

Probability: 50%

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