Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Florida and Virginia Tighten but Obama Still Up Big in Ohio

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls show the race moving marginally in Mitt Romney’s direction.

There is real improvement for Romney in Virginia and Florida compared to last month when Marist previously polled the states. In mid-September, Obama led by four points in Florida and by five points in Virginia. In Ohio, however, Obama’s lead has remained basically unchanged.

Marist (9/30-10/1)
Barack Obama 47%
Mitt Romney 46%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%

Marist (9/30-10/1)
Barack Obama 48%
Mitt Romney 46%
Other 1%
Undecided 5%

Marist (9/30-10/1)
Barack Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 43%
Other 1%
Undecided 4%

Writes Jon Walker at FDL:
The problem for Romney is that even if he were to win Virginia and Florida, where he is still technically trailing, without Ohio he practically doesn’t have a path to 270. If Obama carries Ohio and New Hampshire that puts him at 269 electoral votes. Obama would need to carry only a single other swing state to to get over 270.


  1. Relatives in "Ahia" (as they call it), say they are puzzled. There are no Obama yard signs. There are few bumper stickers on cars. It is a stark comparison to '08.
    They've elected a Repub Governor.
    There was a proposition on the ballot in 2010 to vote on ACA (ObamaCare). ObamaCare went down in flames.
    Yet the polls show BHO ahead...using a weighting for Dems higher than his margin of victory in '08.
    They say: take the InTrade odds.

  2. It's interesting to compare Party ID from 2008 and today.
    The Marist poll samples at D+5.
    2008 Party ID: D+10
    2012 Party ID: R+4

    I wonder if D+5 is reasonable for Ohio. We'll see in November.