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Turn on CNBC (or any other mainstream talking head channel) and you won't find a shortage of prognostications. Thoughts on what will happen in 5, 10, or 20 years are in abundant supply.
Rarely is anyone held to their word after the time passes. Sure, what you say can end up in a YouTube video that haunts you; but because of the sheer number of predictions that are given each day, you're pretty safe to say what you want. No one will check you after the decade passes.
Well, I was just doing some research and going through notes that I took back in 2003. I came across the following quote from Jim Rogers:
2003 – On Feb. 9, Jim Rogers said, “I don’t think the Euro is going to survive ten years from now. Fifteen years from now, it will break up and disappear.”Now, most EPJ readers know that the Euro won't last. Paper money never does. But Jim Rogers gave time frames.
Here we are 9 years later, and Europe is bursting at the seams. They're desperately trying to pull just one more rabbit out of the hat; all in an effort to buy more time.
Jim Rogers was on the money and we'll see in 6 years if he's correct about a total break up. My chips are on him being correct.
Jim was recently a guest on The Robert Wenzel Show. You can listen to that great interview here.
You mean prognostications like Fed money printing will cause massive inflation? This blog fear-mongers and makes open-ended prognostications with no ramifications. You guys never give any time frames so later you might have the chance to say "See I told you so". Such intellectual cowardice.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is rooted more in your ignorance than our cowardice... Anonymous.
Delete"Economics can only tell us that a boom engendered by credit expansion will not last. It cannot tell us after what amount of credit expansion the slump will start or when this event will occur. All that economists and other people say about these quantitative and calendar problems partakes of neither economics nor any other science. What they say in the attempt to anticipate future events makes use of specific "understanding," the same method which is practiced by everybody in all dealings with his fellow man. Specific "understanding" has the same logical character as that which characterizes all anticipation's of future events in human affairs: anticipation's concerning the course of Russia's foreign policy, religious and racial conditions in India or Algeria, ladies' fashions in 1960, the political divisions in the U.S. Senate in 1970; and even such anticipation's as the future marital relations between Mr. X and his wife, or the success in life of a boy who has just celebrated his tenth birthday. There are people who assert that psychology may provide some help in such prognostications. However that may be, it is not our task to examine this problem. We have merely to establish the fact that forecasts about the course of economic affairs cannot be considered scientific."
-Ludwig von Mises
I know. These idiots are the same people that told us as early as 2001 that Greenspan was inflating a housing bubble and that it would collapse, leading to recession. Terrible.
DeleteI know. These same idiots were making similar open-ended prognostications from 2001-2006, telling us that Greenspan had inflated a housing bubble and Bernanke raising interest rates was going to pop it, revealing a terrible misallocation of capital and resulting in recession. Terrible.
DeleteCowardice, I think that's the word they use for people who flame on blogs while hiding behind the "Anonymous" label.
ReplyDeleteNobody (well maybe Jim Rogers) can necessarily predict exactly when and how massive inflation will kick in. For now, since the TARP founds are all sitting in excess reserves and not circulating into the economy. But with QE and all of the other Fed machinations, more money printing is inevitable, as is more price inflation.
I agree with Jim Rogers but you can't put a time limit on these things. It is the fundamental epistemology problem with economics. You can predict trends but not the timing.
ReplyDeleteMy God! Jim Rogers is prescient???
ReplyDeleteHow did he find out? Did he take an Early Precientcy Test? Does his wife know? Who's the father? You guys can gabificate all you want about the Euro failing, but THIS is big news!!!
And I take exception to that "cowardice while hiding behind the anonymous label" crack.
George W. Bu... er
Anonymous
;-)